移动通信需求的聚合与分解预测方法研究.docVIP

Service Science and Management 服务科学和管理, 2013, 2, 15-20 /10.12677/ssem.2013.21003 Published Online February 2013 (/journal/ssem.html) The Research of Aggregate and Disaggregate Approaches to Forecast Mobile Communications Demand Yangbo Zhang, Aihua Zhang, Huaying Shu Service Management Science Research Institute, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing Email: yangbozhang@139.com Received: Jan. 4 , 2013; revised: Jan. 11 , 2013; accepted: Jan. 23 , 2013 th th rd Abstract: The paper uses the aggregation and disaggregation method separately to compare the accuracy of the forecast, in order to determine which method of forecasting the mobile communications demand is more accurate and effective. Panel data model is established to forecast the mobile communications demand and an empirical analysis is made based on forecasting the number of nationwide mobile communications users. The results show that the disaggregate approach outperforms the aggregate forecasting approach in terms of the mean absolute forecast errors of its demand predictions. Besides, this paper focuses on exploring the effect of disaggregate information on the accuracy of aggregate mobile communications demand forecasts. The paper also argues that the relative performances of aggregate and disaggregate approaches might depend on the specifics of the forecasting exercise, along with the performances of other approaches that are based on disaggregate approaches between these two extremes. Keywords: Mobile Communications Demand Forecasting; Panel Data; The Aggregate Approach; The Disaggregate Approach; Quasi-Disaggregate Approaches 移动通信需求的聚合与分解预测方法研究 张泱博，张爱华，舒华英 北京邮电大学服务管理科学研究所，北京 Email: yangbozhang@139.com 收稿日期：2013年 1月 4日；修回日期：2013年 1月 11日；录用日期：2013年 1月 23日 摘 要：本文分别运用聚合和分解的方法对预测需求总量的准确性进行对比，以确定采用何种方法预 测移动通信需求量更为准确