考虑水库调蓄影响的设计洪水计算方法.docVIP

Journal of Water Resources Research 水资源研究, 2012, 1, 211-216 /10.12677/jwrr.2012.14029 Published Online August 2012 (/journal/jwrr.html) Design Flood Estimation at Downstream Section by Considering the Impact of Upstream Reservoir Regulation* Zhangjun Liu , Shenglian Guo , Tianyuan Li , Changjiang Xu 1 1 1 1,2 1 State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 2 Bureau of Hydrology, Changjiang Water Resources Commission, Wuhan Email: liuzhangjun@ Received: Apr. 11 , 2012; revised: Apr. 26 , 2012; accepted: May 9 , 2012 th th th Abstract: The hydrological regime of the natural flood has been changed because of the reservoir storage and regulation, which directly impact on design flood in the downstream section. The Shuibuya-Geheyan cascade reservoirs in the Qingjiang basin were chosen as the case study. Five schemes based on the condi- tional expectation, most likely composition and same frequency methods were used to analyse flood regional combination of the Shuibuya reservoir and interval basins. The design floods of the Geheyan section were es- timated by considering the impact of the Shuibuya reservoir regulation and compared with that of natural condition. The results show that design peak discharges of five schemes are reduced; the maximum and minimum values are estimated by the conditional expectation I and the conditional expectation II schemes respectively. The same frequency methods are neither the most likely to occur, nor the most unfavorable cir- cumstances for flood control of Geheyan section. This study not only can provide references for the Qingji- ang cascade reservoirs operation and management, but a