Bayesian Learning of Climate Sensitivity I Synthetic Observations英文文献资料.docVIP

Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, 2012, 2, 464-473 /10.4236/acs.2012.24040 Published Online October 2012 (http://www.SciRP.org/journal/acs) Bayesian Learning of Climate Sensitivity I: Synthetic Observations Michael J. Ring, Michael E. Schlesinger Climate Research Group, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, USA Email: mjring@ Received June 27, 2012; revised July 29, 2012; accepted August 11, 2012 ABSTRACT The instrumental temperature records are affected by both external climate forcings—in particular, the increase of long-lived greenhouse gas emissions—and natural, internal variability. Estimates of the value of equilibrium climate sensitivity—the change in global-mean equilibrium near-surface temperature due to a doubling of the pre-industrial CO2 concentration—and other climate parameters using these observational records are affected by the presence of the internal variability. A different realization of the natural variability will result in different estimates of the values of these climate parameters. In this study we apply Bayesian estimation to simulated temperature and ocean heat-uptake records generated by our Climate Research Group’s Simple Climate Model for known values of equilibrium climate sensitivity, ?T2x, direct sulfate aerosol forcing in reference year 2000, FASA, and oceanic heat diffusivity, κ. We choose the simulated records for one choice of values of the climate parameters to serve as the synthetic observations. To each of the simulated temperature records we add a number of draws of the quasi-periodic oscillations and stochastic noise, determined from the observed temperature record. For cases considering only values of ?T2x and/or κ, the Bayesian estimation converges to the value(s) of ?T2x and/or κ used to generate the synthetic observations. However, for cases studying FASA, the Bayesian analysis does not converge to