商业建筑初期灭火系统分析与决策.pdfVIP

Vo l. 29 No.l 重庆建筑大学学报 第 2? 卷第1 期 2007 年 2 月 Journal of Chongqing Jianzhu University Feb.2oo7 商业建筑初期灭火系统分析与决策* 闰金花1 ， 张兴国1 ， 李慧民2 ， 杨茂盛2 (1.重庆大学 建筑城规学院，重庆 4∞045;2. 西安建筑科技大学，陕西西安 71∞55 ) 摘要:初期灭火是遏制商业建筑火灾的最佳时机，针对商业建筑火灾初期灭火过程中出现的问题，构建 系统模型进行分析。数据来源于我国商业建筑特大火灾案例，采用贝叶斯统计分析方法进行分析，克服 了火灾数据缺乏、且难以进行大量重复实验的困难，得到参数的条件期望估计与方差。 通过对系统故障 树的分析，得到我国商业建筑火灾初期灭火失败概率的期望与方差，并对参数引起的误差进行系统误差 传播分析。最后进行系统决策。 关键词:初期;系统模型;贝叶斯统计分析;误差传播;决策 中图分类号:TU998. 12 文献标识码:A 文章编号:1006 … 7329 (2007) 01 - 0022 - 04 Analysis and Strategic Decision of Extinguishments System at the Initial Stage of Fire in Commercial Buildings 1 1 2 2 YAN Jin - hua , ZHANG Xing 一♂10 ， LI Hui - min , YANG Mao - sheng (1. College of Architecture and Urban Planning , Chongqing University , Chongqing 400045 ,P. R. China ;2. Xi ân University of Architecture and Technology , Xiân 710055 ,P. R. China) Abstract: The best chance to extinguish the fire in commercial buildings is at the initial stage of a fire. For the problems during extinguishments at the initial stage of fire , a fire extinguishment system model at initial stage of fire in commercial buildings is designed. The fire data come from the fire cases in Chinese commercial buildings. The expected value and Variance of probability of basic events are calculated by using Bayesian statistical analysis method , which has overcome the difficulty from inefficient fire datum and obtaining repeated fire experience. Then the failure probability of extin- guishments system at initial stage