An Epidemiological Network Model for Disease Outbreak Detection 英文参考文献.docVIP

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An Epidemiological Network Model for Disease Outbreak Detection 英文参考文献.doc

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An Epidemiological Network Model for Disease Outbreak Detection 英文参考文献

o PL SMEDICINE AnEpidemiologicalNetworkModelforDisease OutbreakDetection Ben Y.Reis*,Isaac S.Kohane, Kenneth D.Mandl Children’s Hospital Informatics Program, Harvard-MIT Division of Health Sciences and Technology, Children’s Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, UnitedStatesofAmerica Funding:Thisworkwassupported bygrantR01LM007677–01fromthe NationalLibraryofMedicineatthe USNationalInstitutesofHealth,and bygrantR01PH000040–01fromthe USCentersforDiseaseControland Prevention.Thefundershadnorole instudydesign,datacollectionand analysis,decisiontopublish,or ABSTRACT Background Advanced disease-surveillance systems have been deployed worldwide to provide early detectionofinfectiousdiseaseoutbreaksandbioterroristattacks.Newmethodsthatimprove the overall detection capabilities of these systems can have a broad practical impact. Furthermore, most current generation surveillance systems are vulnerable to dramatic and unpredictable shifts in the health-care data that they monitor. These shifts can occur during majorpublicevents,suchastheOlympics,asaresultofpopulationsurgesandpublicclosures. Shiftscanalsooccurduringepidemicsandpandemicsasaresultofquarantines,theworried- wellfloodingemergencydepartments or,conversely,thepublic stayingawayfrom hospitals for fear of nosocomial infection. Most surveillance systems are not robust to such shifts in health-careutilization,eitherbecausetheydonotadjustbaselinesandalert-thresholdstonew utilizationlevels,orbecausetheutilizationshiftsthemselvesmaytriggeranalarm.Asaresult, public-healthcrisesandmajorpubliceventsthreatentounderminehealth-surveillancesystems attheverytimestheyareneededmost. preparationofthemanuscript. CompetingInterests:Theauthors havedeclaredthatnocompeting interestsexist. AcademicEditor:LaurenAncel Meyers,UniversityofTexasatAustin, UnitedStatesofAmerica Citation:ReisBY,KohaneIS,Mandl KD(2007)Anepidemiological networkmodelfordiseaseoutbreak detection.PLoSMed4(6):e210. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0040210