Effective, Robust Design of Community Mitigation for Pandemic Influenza A Systematic Examination of Proposed US Guidance 英文参考文献.docVIP

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Effective, Robust Design of Community Mitigation for Pandemic Influenza A Systematic Examination of Proposed US Guidance 英文参考文献.doc

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Effective, Robust Design of Community Mitigation for Pandemic Influenza A Systematic Examination of Proposed US Guidance 英文参考文献

Effective,RobustDesignofCommunityMitigationfor PandemicInfluenza:ASystematicExaminationof ProposedUSGuidance VictoriaJ.Davey1,2.*,RobertJ.Glass3.,H.JasonMin3,WalterE.Beyeler3,LauraM.Glass4 1Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences, Bethesda, Maryland, United States of America, 2Office of Public Health and Environmental Hazards, Veterans Health Administration, Department of Veterans Affairs, Washington D. C., United States of America, 3National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center, Sandia NationalLaboratories,Albuquerque,NewMexico,UnitedStatesofAmerica,4AlbuquerquePublicSchools,Albuquerque,NewMexico,UnitedStatesofAmerica Abstract Background: The US governmentproposes pandemic influenza mitigation guidance that includes isolation and antiviral treatmentofillpersons,voluntaryhouseholdmemberquarantineandantiviralprophylaxis,socialdistancingofindividuals, schoolclosure,reductionofcontactsatwork,andprioritizedvaccination.Isthisthebeststrategycombination?Ischoiceof thisstrategyrobusttopandemicuncertainties?Whatarecriticalenablersofcommunityresilience? MethodsandFindings:Wesystematicallysimulateabroadrangeofpandemicscenariosandmitigationstrategiesusinga networked, agent-based model of a community of explicit, multiply-overlapping social contact networks. We evaluate illnessandsocietalburdenforalterationsinsocialnetworks,illnessparameters,orinterventionimplementation.Fora1918- like pandemic, the best strategy minimizes illness to ,1% of the population and combines network-based (e.g. school closure,socialdistancingofallwithadults’contactsatworkreduced),andcase-basedmeasures(e.g.antiviraltreatmentof the ill and prophylaxis of household members). We find choice of this best strategy robust to removal of enhanced transmission by the young, additional complexity in contact networks, and altered influenza natural history including extendedviralshedding.Administrationofage-grouporrandomlytargeted50%effectivepre-pandemicvaccinewith7% population coverage (curr