Estimating Infection Attack Rates and Severity in Real Time during an Influenza Pandemic Analysis of Serial Cross-Sectional Serologic Surveillance Data 英文参考文献.docVIP

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Estimating Infection Attack Rates and Severity in Real Time during an Influenza Pandemic Analysis of Serial Cross-Sectional Serologic Surveillance Data 英文参考文献.doc

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Estimating Infection Attack Rates and Severity in Real Time during an Influenza Pandemic Analysis of Serial Cross-Sectional Serologic Surveillance Data 英文参考文献

EstimatingInfectionAttackRatesandSeverityinReal TimeduringanInfluenzaPandemic:AnalysisofSerial Cross-SectionalSerologicSurveillanceData JosephT.Wu1*,AndrewHo1,EdwardS.K.Ma2,CheukKwongLee3,DanielK.W.Chu2,Po-LaiHo2, IvanF.N.Hung4,LaiMingHo1,CheKitLin3,ThomasTsang5,Su-VuiLo6,7,Yu-LungLau8,GabrielM. Leung7,BenjaminJ.Cowling1.,J.S.MalikPeiris2,9. 1DepartmentofCommunityMedicineandSchoolofPublicHealth,LiKaShingFacultyofMedicine,TheUniversityofHongKong,HongKongSpecialAdministrative Region, People’s Republic of China, 2Department of Microbiology, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region,People’sRepublicofChina,3HongKongRedCrossBloodTransfusionService,HospitalAuthority,HongKongSpecialAdministrativeRegion,People’sRepublicof China,4DepartmentofMedicine,LiKaShingFacultyofMedicine,TheUniversityofHongKong,HongKongSpecialAdministrativeRegion,People’sRepublicofChina, 5CentreforHealthProtection,DepartmentofHealth,GovernmentoftheHongKongSpecialAdministrativeRegion,People’sRepublicofChina, 6HospitalAuthority, HongKongSpecialAdministrativeRegion,People’sRepublicofChina,7FoodandHealthBureau,GovernmentoftheHongKongSpecialAdministrativeRegion,People’s RepublicofChina,8DepartmentofPaediatricsandAdolescentMedicine,LiKaShingFacultyofMedicine,TheUniversityofHongKong,HongKongSpecialAdministrative Region,People’sRepublicofChina,9HKU-PasteurResearchCenter,HongKongSpecialAdministrativeRegion,People’sRepublicofChina Abstract Background: In an emerging influenza pandemic, estimating severity (the probability of a severe outcome, such as hospitalization,ifinfected)isapublichealthpriority.Asmanyinfluenzainfectionsaresubclinical,sero-surveillanceisneeded toallowreliablereal-timeestimatesofinfectionattackrate(IAR)andseverity. MethodsandFindings:Wetested14,766seracollectedduringthefirstwaveofthe2009pandemicinHongKongusing viral microneutralization. We estimated IAR and infection-hospitalization probability (IHP) from the serial cros