Evaluation of Targeted Influenza Vaccination Strategies via Population Modeling 英文参考文献.docVIP

EvaluationofTargetedInfluenzaVaccinationStrategies viaPopulationModeling JohnGlasser1*,DenisTaneri1,ZhilanFeng2,Jen-HsiangChuang3,PeetTu¨ll4,WilliamThompson1 ,Mary MasonMcCauley1,JamesAlexander1 1NationalCenterforImmunizationandRespiratoryDiseases,CentersforDiseaseControlandPrevention,Atlanta,Georgia,UnitedStatesofAmerica,2Departmentof Mathematics,PurdueUniversity,WestLafayette,Indiana,UnitedStatesofAmerica,3EpidemicIntelligenceCenter,CentersforDiseaseControl,Taipei,Taiwan,4Scientific AdviceUnit,EuropeanCentreforDiseasePreventionandControl,Stockholm,Sweden Abstract Background: Because they can generate comparable predictions, mathematical models are ideal tools for evaluating alternative drug or vaccine allocation strategies. To remain credible, however, results must be consistent. Authors of a recentassessmentofpossibleinfluenzavaccinationstrategiesconcludethatolderchildren,adolescents,andyoungadults aretheoptimaltargets,nomattertheobjective,andargueforvaccinatingthem.Authorsoftwoearlierstudiesconcluded, respectively,thatoptimaltargetsdependonobjectivesandcautionedagainstchangingpolicy.Whichshouldwebelieve? Methods and Findings: In matrices whose elements are contacts between persons by age, the main diagonal always predominates, reflecting contacts between contemporaries. Indirect effects (e.g., impacts of vaccinating one group on morbidity or mortality in others) result from off-diagonal elements. Mixing matrices based on periods in proximity with others have greater sub- and super-diagonals, reflecting contacts between parents and children, and other off-diagonal elements(reflecting,e.g.,age-independentcontactsamongco-workers),thanthosebasedonface-to-faceconversations.To assesstheimpactoftargetedvaccination,weusedatime-usagestudy’smixingmatrixandallowedvaccineefficacytovary with age. And we derived mortality rates either by dividing observed deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza by averageannualcasesfromademographically-realisticSEIRSmodelorbymultiplyin