Game Theory of Social Distancing in Response to an Epidemic 英文参考文献.docVIP

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Game Theory of Social Distancing in Response to an Epidemic 英文参考文献.doc

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Game Theory of Social Distancing in Response to an Epidemic 英文参考文献

GameTheoryofSocialDistancinginResponsetoan Epidemic TimothyC.Reluga* DepartmentofMathematics,PennsylvaniaStateUniversity,StateCollege,Pennsylvania,UnitedStatesofAmerica Abstract Socialdistancingpracticesarechangesinbehaviorthatpreventdiseasetransmissionbyreducingcontactratesbetween susceptibleindividualsandinfectedindividualswhomaytransmitthedisease.Socialdistancingpracticescanreducethe severity of an epidemic, but the benefits of social distancing depend on the extent to which it is used by individuals. Individualsaresometimesreluctanttopaythecostsinherentinsocialdistancing,andthiscanlimititseffectivenessasa controlmeasure.Thispaperformulatesadifferential-gametoidentifyhowindividualswouldbestusesocialdistancingand relatedself-protectivebehaviorsduringanepidemic.Theepidemicisdescribedbyasimple,well-mixedordinarydifferential equation model. We use the differential game to study potential value of social distancing as a mitigation measure by calculatingtheequilibriumbehaviorsunderavarietyofcost-functions.Numericalmethodsareusedtocalculatethetotal costs of an epidemic under equilibrium behaviors as a function of the time to mass vaccination, following epidemic identification.Thekeyparametersintheanalysisarethebasicreproductionnumberandthebaselineefficiencyofsocial distancing.Theresultsshowthatsocialdistancingismostbeneficialtoindividualsforbasicreproductionnumbersaround2. Intheabsenceofvaccinationorotherinterventionmeasures,optimalsocialdistancingneverrecoversmorethan30%of thecostofinfection.Wealsoshowhowthewindowofopportunityforvaccinedevelopmentlengthensastheefficiencyof socialdistancinganddetectionimprove. Citation:RelugaTC(2010)GameTheoryofSocialDistancinginResponsetoanEpidemic.PLoSComputBiol6(5):e1000793.doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1000793 Editor:CarlT.Bergstrom,UniversityofWashington,UnitedStatesofAmerica ReceivedDecember3,2009;AcceptedApril23,2010;PublishedMay27,2010 Copyright:?2010TimothyC.Reluga.Thisisanopen-accessarticledistributedunderthetermsoftheCreativeCom