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Genetic Progression and the Waiting Time to Cancer 英文参考文献
GeneticProgressionandtheWaitingTime
toCancer
Niko Beerenwinkel1¤*,Tibor Antal1,David Dingli1,Arne Traulsen1,Kenneth W. Kinzler2,Victor E.Velculescu2,
Bert Vogelstein2,3,Martin A.Nowak1
1ProgramforEvolutionaryDynamics,HarvardUniversity,Cambridge,Massachusetts,UnitedStatesofAmerica,2LudwigCenter,SidneyKimmelComprehensiveCancer
CenteratJohnsHopkins,Baltimore,Maryland,UnitedStatesofAmerica,3HowardHughesMedicalInstitute,JohnsHopkinsUniversity,Baltimore,Maryland,UnitedStatesof
America
Cancerresultsfromgeneticalterationsthatdisturbthenormalcooperativebehaviorofcells.Recenthigh-throughput
genomicstudiesofcancer cells haveshownthat themutational landscapeofcancer is complexandthat individual
cancersmayevolvethroughmutationsinasmanyas20differentcancer-associatedgenes.Weusedatapublishedby
Sjo¨blometal.(2006)todevelopanewmathematicalmodelforthesomaticevolutionofcolorectalcancers.Weemploy
the Wright-Fisher process for exploring the basic parameters of this evolutionary process and derive an analytical
approximationfortheexpectedwaitingtimetothecancerphenotype.Ourresultshighlighttherelativeimportanceof
selectionoverboththesizeofthecellpopulationatriskandthemutationrate.Themodelpredictsthattheobserved
genetic diversity of cancer genomescan arise undera normal mutation rateif the average selective advantageper
mutationisontheorderof1%.Increasedmutationratesduetogeneticinstabilitywouldallowevensmallerselective
advantagesduringtumorigenesis.Thecomplexityofcancerprogressioncanbeunderstoodastheresultofmultiple
sequentialmutations,eachofwhichhasarelativelysmallbutpositiveeffectonnetcellgrowth.
Citation:BeerenwinkelN,AntalT,DingliD,TraulsenA,KinzlerKW,etal.(2007)Geneticprogressionandthewaitingtimetocancer.PLoSComputBiol3(11):e225.doi:10.
1371/journal.pcbi.0030225
mutationsmarkthehistoryofthecancercell,includingboth
driversandpassengers.
Introduction
Thecurrentviewofcanceristhattumorigenesisisdueto
theaccumulationofmutationsinoncogenes,tumorsuppres-
sor genes, and genetic instabili
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