Global Civil Unrest Contagion, Self-Organization, and Prediction 英文参考文献.docVIP

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Global Civil Unrest Contagion, Self-Organization, and Prediction 英文参考文献.doc

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Global Civil Unrest Contagion, Self-Organization, and Prediction 英文参考文献

GlobalCivilUnrest:Contagion,Self-Organization,and Prediction DanBraha1,2,3 * 1NewEnglandComplexSystemsInstitute,Cambridge,Massachusetts,UnitedStatesofAmerica,2UniversityofMassachusetts,Dartmouth,Massachusetts,UnitedStates ofAmerica,3MassachusettsInstituteofTechnology,Cambridge,Massachusetts,UnitedStatesofAmerica Abstract Civil unrest is a powerful form of collective human dynamics, which has led to major transitions of societies in modern history.Thestudyofcollectivehumandynamics,includingcollectiveaggression,hasbeenthefocusofmuchdiscussionin the context of modeling and identification of universal patterns of behavior. In contrast, the possibility that civil unrest activities,acrosscountriesandoverlongtimeperiods,aregovernedbyuniversalmechanismshasnotbeenexplored.Here, recordsofcivilunrestof170countriesduringtheperiod1919–2008areanalyzed.Itisdemonstratedthatthedistributions ofthenumberofunresteventsperyeararerobustlyreproducedbyanonlinear,spatiallyextendeddynamicalmodel,which reflectsthespreadofcivildisorderbetweengeographicregionsconnectedthroughsocialandcommunicationnetworks. Theresultsalsoexposethesimilaritybetweenglobalsocialinstabilityandthedynamicsofnaturalhazardsandepidemics. Citation:BrahaD(2012)GlobalCivilUnrest:Contagion,Self-Organization,andPrediction.PLoSONE7(10):e48596.doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0048596 Editor:YamirMoreno,UniversityofZaragoza,Spain ReceivedJune28,2012;AcceptedSeptember28,2012;PublishedOctober31,2012 Copyright: ? 2012 Dan Braha. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricteduse,distribution,andreproductioninanymedium,providedtheoriginalauthorandsourcearecredited. Funding:Theauthorhasnosupportorfundingtoreport. CompetingInterests:Theauthorhasdeclaredthatnocompetinginterestsexist. *E-mail:braha@ Introduction hypothesisthatwidespreadunrestarisesfrominternalprocessesof positive feedback and cascading effects in the form of contagion andsocialdiffusionoverspat