Predicting the Herd Immunity Threshold during an Outbreak A Recursive Approach 英文参考文献.docVIP

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Predicting the Herd Immunity Threshold during an Outbreak A Recursive Approach 英文参考文献.doc

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Predicting the Herd Immunity Threshold during an Outbreak A Recursive Approach 英文参考文献

PredictingtheHerdImmunityThresholdduringan Outbreak:ARecursiveApproach NathanT.Georgette* ScienceDepartment,AllenD.NeaseHighSchool,PonteVedra,Florida,UnitedStatesofAmerica Abstract Background:Theobjectivewastodevelopanovelalgorithmthatcanpredict,basedonfieldsurveydata,theminimum vaccination coverage required to reduce the mean number of infections per infectious individual to less than one (the OutbreakResponseImmunizationThresholdorORIT)fromuptosixdaysintheadvance. Methodology/PrincipalFindings:First,therelationshipbetweentherateofimmunizationandtheORITwasanalyzedto establishalink.ThisrelationshipservedasthebasisforthedevelopmentofarecursivealgorithmthatpredictstheORIT usingsurveydatafromtwoconsecutivedays.Thealgorithmwastestedusingdatafromtwoactualmeaslesoutbreaks.The predictiondaydifference(PDD)wasdefinedasthenumberofdaysbetweentheseconddayofdatainputandthedayof the prediction. The effects of different PDDs on the prediction error were analyzed, and it was found that a PDD of 5 minimizedtheerrorintheprediction.Inaddition,Idevelopedamodeldemonstratingtherelationshipbetweenchangesin thevaccinationcoverageandchangesintheindividualreproductionnumber. Conclusions/Significance:Thepredictivealgorithm fortheORITgeneratesaviableprediction oftheminimum numberof vaccinesrequiredtostopanoutbreakinrealtime.Withthisknowledge,theoutbreakcontrolagencymayplantoexpendthe lowestamountoffundsrequiredstopanoutbreak,allowingthediversionofthefundssavedtootherareasofmedicalneed. Citation: Georgette NT (2009) Predicting the Herd Immunity Threshold during an Outbreak: A Recursive Approach. PLoS ONE 4(1): e4168. doi:10.1371/ journal.pone.0004168 Editor:ErikvonElm,UniversityofBern,Switzerland ReceivedMay26,2008;AcceptedDecember8,2008;PublishedJanuary9,2009 Copyright: ? 2009 Georgette. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricteduse,distribution,andreproductioninanymedium,providedtheoriginalauthorand