Predicting the Impact of the 2011 Conflict in Libya on Population Mental Health PTSD and Depression Prevalence and Mental Health Service Requirements 英文参考文献.docVIP

PredictingtheImpactofthe2011ConflictinLibyaon PopulationMentalHealth:PTSDandDepression PrevalenceandMentalHealthServiceRequirements FionaJ.Charlson1,ZacharySteel2,LouisaDegenhardt3,4,TienChey2,DerrickSilove2,ClaireMarnane2, HarveyA.Whiteford1* 1SchoolofPopulationHealth,UniversityofQueensland,Herston,Queensland,Australia,2SchoolofPsychiatry,UniversityofNewSouthWales,PrinceofWalesHospital, Randwick,NewSouthWales,Australia,3CentreforHealthPolicy,ProgramsandEconomics,SchoolofPopulationHealth,TheUniversityofMelbourne,Carlton,Victoria, Australia,4NationalDrugandAlcoholResearchCentre,UniversityofNewSouthWales,Sydney,Randwick,NewSouthWales,Australia Abstract Background: Mental disorders are likely to be elevated in the Libyan population during the post-conflict period. We estimated cases of severe PTSD and depression and related health service requirements using modelling from existing epidemiologicaldataandcurrentrecommendedmentalhealthservicetargetsinlowandmiddleincomecountries(LMIC’s). Methods:Post-conflictprevalenceestimateswerederivedfrommodelsbasedonapreviouslyconductedsystematicreview andmeta-regressionanalysisofmentalhealthamongpopulationslivinginconflict.Politicalterrorratingsandintensityof exposuretotraumaticeventswereusedinpredictivemodels.Prevalenceofseverecaseswasappliedtochosenpopulations alongwithuncertaintyranges.Sixpopulationsdeemedtobeaffectedbytheconflictwerechosenformodelling:Misrata (populationof444,812),Benghazi(pop.674,094),Zintan(pop.40,000),displacedpeoplewithinTripoli/Zlitan(pop.49,000), displaced people within Misrata (pop. 25,000) and Ras Jdir camps (pop. 3,700). Proposed targets for service coverage, resource utilisation and full-time equivalent staffing for management of severe cases of major depression and post- traumaticstressdisorder(PTSD)arebasedonapublishedmodelforLMIC’s. Findings: Severe PTSD prevalence in populations exposed to a high level of political terror and traumatic events was estimatedat12.4%(95%CI8.5–16.7)andwas19.8%(95%CI14.