Predicting the Psychological Response of the American People to Oil Depletion and Declining Energy Return on Investment (EROI) 英文参考文献.docVIP

Sustainability 2011, 3, 2129-2156; doi:10.3390/su3112129 OPEN ACCESS sustainability ISSN 2071-1050 /journal/sustainability Article Predicting the Psychological Response of the American People to Oil Depletion and Declining Energy Return on Investment (EROI) Jessica G. Lambert* and Gail P. Lambert Next Generation Energy Initiative, Inc., 32 First Street, Marcellus, NY 13108, USA; E-Mail: GLambert.NGEI@ * Author to whom correspondence should be addressed; E-Mail: JLambert.NGEI@; Tel.: +1-315-278-7954; Fax: +1-315-804-6555. Received: 29 June 2011; in revised form: 1 August 2011 / Accepted: 5 August 2011 / Published: 7 November 2011 Abstract: Oil has played a crucial role in the United States’ continued but increasingly tenuous economic prosperity. The continued availability of cheap, high energy return on investment (EROI) oil, however, is increasingly in doubt. If cheap oil is increasingly constrained, how might that impact the American psychological sense of personal and national well-being? We employ general systems theory and certain key paradigms from psychology and sociology to predict the possible societal response to global peak oil and the declining EROI of whatever oil is produced. Based on these frameworks, the following three defense mechanisms seem likely to be employed by individuals and groups within society if and when confronted with stresses associated with declining oil availability. These are: denial of one’s passive helpless state, desire to establish a scapegoat, and arousal of affiliative needs and increased subgrouping. A group’s “survival” is a function of its unified sense of direction and the stability of necessary interdependencies and linkages. We suggest that the ability of the U.S. society, taken as a whole, to adapt to the stresses derived from the declining EROI of oil will increase during periods of moderate stress, and then declin