Projected Loss of a Salamander Diversity Hotspot as a Consequence of Projected Global Climate Change 英文参考文献.docVIP

ProjectedLossofaSalamanderDiversityHotspotasa ConsequenceofProjectedGlobalClimateChange JosephR.Milanovich1*,WilliamE.Peterman2,NathanP.Nibbelink1,JohnC.Maerz1 1D.B.WarnellSchoolofForestryandNaturalResources,UniversityofGeorgia,Athens,Georgia,UnitedStatesofAmerica,2DepartmentofBiologicalSciences,University ofMissouri,Columbia,Missouri,UnitedStatesofAmerica Abstract Background: Significant shifts in climate are considered a threat to plants and animals with significant physiological limitations and limited dispersal abilities. The southern Appalachian Mountains are a global hotspot for plethodontid salamander diversity. Plethodontids are lungless ectotherms, so their ecology is strongly governed by temperature and precipitation.ManyplethodontidspeciesinsouthernAppalachiaexistinhighelevationhabitatsthatmaybeatorneartheir thermalmaxima,andmayalsohavelimiteddispersalabilitiesacrosswarmervalleybottoms. Methodology/PrincipalFindings:Weusedamaximum-entropyapproach(programMaxent)tomodelthesuitableclimatic habitatof41plethodontidsalamanderspeciesinhabitingtheAppalachianHighlandsregion(33individualspeciesandeight species included within two species complexes). We evaluated the relative change in suitable climatic habitat for these speciesintheAppalachianHighlandsfromthecurrentclimatetotheyears2020,2050,and2080,usingboththeHADCM3 andtheCGCM3models,eachunderlowandhighCO2scenarios,andusingtwo-modelthresholdslevels(relativesuitability thresholdsfordeterminingsuitable/unsuitablerange),foratotalof8scenariosperspecies. Conclusion/Significance: While models differed slightly, every scenario projected significant declines in suitable habitat withintheAppalachianHighlandsasearlyas2020.Specieswithmoresouthernrangesandwithsmallerrangeshadlarger projectedhabitatloss.Despitesignificantdifferencesinprojectedprecipitationchangestotheregion,projectionsdidnot differ significantly between global circulation models. CO2 emissions scenario and model threshold had small effects on projectedhabit