Projections of Global Mortality and Burden of Disease from 2002 to 2030 英文参考文献.docVIP

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Projections of Global Mortality and Burden of Disease from 2002 to 2030 英文参考文献.doc

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Projections of Global Mortality and Burden of Disease from 2002 to 2030 英文参考文献

o PL SMEDICINE ProjectionsofGlobalMortalityandBurden ofDiseasefrom2002to2030 Colin D.Mathers*,Dejan Loncar EvidenceandInformationforPolicyCluster,WorldHealthOrganization,Geneva,Switzerland Funding:Financialsupportforthis projectwasprovidedbytheWorld HealthOrganization(WHO) ABSTRACT DepartmentofChronicDiseasesand HealthPromotionandtheWHO CommissiononIntellectualProperty Rights,InnovationandPublicHealth. Thefundershadnoroleinstudy design,datacollectionandanalysis, decisiontopublish,orpreparation ofthemanuscript. Background Global and regional projections of mortality and burden of disease by cause for the years 2000,2010,and2030werepublishedbyMurrayandLopezin1996aspartoftheGlobalBurden of Disease project. These projections, which are based on 1990 data, continue to be widely quoted, although they are substantially outdated; in particular, they substantially under- estimatedthespreadofHIV/AIDS.Toaddressthewidespreaddemandforinformationonlikely futuretrendsinglobalhealth,andtherebytosupportinternationalhealthpolicyandpriority setting,wehavepreparednewprojectionsofmortalityandburdenofdiseaseto2030starting from World Health Organization estimates of mortality and burden of disease for 2002. This paperdescribesthemethods,assumptions,inputdata,andresults. CompetingInterests:Theauthors havedeclaredthatnocompeting interestsexist. AcademicEditor:JonSamet,Johns HopkinsSchoolofPublicHealth, UnitedStatesofAmerica MethodsandFindings Citation:MathersCD,LoncarD (2006)Projectionsofglobalmortality andburdenofdiseasefrom2002to 2030.PLoSMed3(11):e442.doi:10. 1371/journal.pmed.0030442 Relativelysimplemodelswereusedtoprojectfuturehealthtrendsunderthreescenarios— baseline, optimistic, and pessimistic—based largely on projections of economic and social development, and using the historically observed relationships of these with cause-specific mortalityrates. Datainputs havebeenupdatedtotakeaccount ofthe greateravailabilityof death registration data and the latest available projections