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Prospects for Malaria Eradication in Sub-Saharan Africa 英文参考文献
ProspectsforMalariaEradicationinSub-SaharanAfrica
RicardoAguas′ 1,LisaJ.White2,RobertW.Snow3,4,M.GabrielaM.Gomes1,5
*
1Instituto Gulbenkian de Cie?ncia, Oeiras, Portugal, 2Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Department of Biological Sciences, University of Warwick, Coventry, United
Kingdom, 3Malaria Public Health and Epidemiology Group, Centre for Geographic Medicine, Kenya Medical Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya, 4Centre for Tropical
Medicine, University of Oxford, John Radcliffe Hospital, Headington, Oxford, United Kingdom, 5Centro de Matema′tica e Aplicac?o?es Fundamentais, Universidade de
Lisboa,Lisboa,Portugal
Abstract
Background:AcharacteristicofPlasmodiumfalciparuminfectionsisthegradualacquisitionofclinicalimmunityresulting
from repeated exposures to the parasite. While the molecular basis of protection against clinical malaria remains
unresolved, its effects on epidemiological patterns are well recognized. Accumulating epidemiological data constitute a
valuableresourcethatmustbeintensivelyexploredandinterpretedastoeffectivelyinformcontrolplanning.
Methodology/PrincipalFinding:Hereweapplyamathematicalmodeltoclinicaldatafromeightendemicregionsinsub-
SaharanAfrica.Themodelprovidesaquantitativeframeworkwithinwhichdifferencesinagedistributionofclinicaldisease
are assessed in terms of the parameters underlying transmission. The shorter infectious periods estimated for clinical
infectionsinducearegimeofbistabilityofendemicandmalaria-freestatesinregionsofmesoendemictransmission.The
two epidemiological states are separated by a threshold that provides a convenient measure for intervention design.
Scenariosoferadicationandresurgencearesimulated.
Conclusions/Significance: In regions that support mesoendemic transmission, intervention success depends critically on
reducingprevalencebelowathresholdwhichseparatesendemicandmalaria-freeregimes.
Citation: A′guas R, White LJ, Snow RW, Gomes MGM (2008) Prospects for Malaria Eradication in Sub-Saharan Africa. PLoS ONE 3(
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