Real-time forecasting of an epidemic using a discrete time stochastic model a case study of pandemic influenza (H1N1-2009) 英文参考文献.docVIP
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Real-time forecasting of an epidemic using a discrete time stochastic model a case study of pandemic influenza (H1N1-2009) 英文参考文献
NishiuraBioMedicalEngineeringOnLine2011,10:15
/content/10/1/15
RESEARCH
OpenAccess
Real-timeforecastingofanepidemicusinga
discretetimestochasticmodel:acasestudyof
pandemicinfluenza(H1N1-2009)
HiroshiNishiura1,2,3
Correspondence:nishiura@hku.hk
1PRESTO,JapanScienceand
Abstract
TechnologyAgency,4-1-8Honcho,
Kawaguchi,Saitama332-0012,
Japan
Background:Real-timeforecastingofepidemics,especiallythosebasedona
likelihood-basedapproach,isunderstudied.Thisstudyaimedtodevelopasimple
methodthatcanbeusedforthereal-timeepidemicforecasting.
Methods:Adiscretetimestochasticmodel,accountingfordemographic
stochasticityandconditionalmeasurement,wasdevelopedandappliedasacase
studytotheweeklyincidenceofpandemicinfluenza(H1N1-2009)inJapan.By
imposingabranchingprocessapproximationandbyassumingthelineargrowthof
caseswithineachreportinginterval,theepidemiccurveispredictedusingonlytwo
parameters.Theuncertaintyboundsoftheforecastsarecomputedusingchainsof
conditionaloffspringdistributions.
Results:Thequalityoftheforecastsmadebeforetheepidemicpeakappearslargely
todependonobtainingvalidparameterestimates.Theforecastsofbothweekly
incidenceandfinalepidemicsizegreatlyimprovedatandaftertheepidemicpeak
withalltheobserveddatapointsfallingwithintheuncertaintybounds.
Conclusions:Real-timeforecastingusingthediscretetimestochasticmodelwithits
simplecomputationoftheuncertaintyboundswassuccessful.Becauseofthe
simplisticmodelstructure,theproposedmodelhasthepotentialtoadditionally
accountforvarioustypesofheterogeneity,time-dependenttransmissiondynamics
andepidemiologicaldetails.Theimpactofsuchcomplexitiesonforecastingshould
beexploredwhenthedatabecomeavailableaspartofthediseasesurveillance.
Background
Mathematicalmodelsinpopulationbiologyandepidemiologyhavegreatlyprogressed
duringthepastfewdecades,supportingtheargumentfortherelevanceoftheoretical
models to the study of empirical observations [1,2]. The transmission dynamics of
infectious diseases have been well studied using modeling methods, facilitating o
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