Reproductive Number and Serial Interval of the First Wave of Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 Virus in South Africa 英文参考文献.docVIP

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Reproductive Number and Serial Interval of the First Wave of Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 Virus in South Africa 英文参考文献.doc

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Reproductive Number and Serial Interval of the First Wave of Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 Virus in South Africa 英文参考文献

ReproductiveNumberandSerialIntervaloftheFirst WaveofInfluenzaA(H1N1)pdm09VirusinSouthAfrica BrettN.Archer1,StefanoTempia2,LauraF.White3,MarcelloPagano4,CherylCohen1,5* 1National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD), National Health Laboratory Service (NHLS), Johannesburg, Gauteng, South Africa, 2United States Centers for DiseaseControlandPrevention,Attache′totheNationalInstituteforCommunicableDiseases(NICD),NationalHealthLaboratoryService(NHLS),Johannesburg,Gauteng, SouthAfrica,3DepartmentofBiostatistics,SchoolofPublicHealth,BostonUniversity,Boston,Massachusetts,UnitedStatesofAmerica,4SchoolofPublicHealth,Harvard University,Cambridge,Massachusetts,UnitedStatesofAmerica,5SchoolofPublicHealth,UniversityofWitwatersrand,Johannesburg,Gauteng,SouthAfrica Abstract Background/Objective: Describing transmissibility parameters of past pandemics from diverse geographic sites remains critical to planning responses to future outbreaks. We characterize the transmissibility of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 (hereafterpH1N1)inSouthAfricaduring2009byestimatingtheserialinterval(SI),theinitialeffectivereproductivenumber (initialRt)andthetemporalvariationofRt. Methods:WemakeuseofdatafromacentralregistryofallpH1N1laboratory-confirmedcasesdetectedthroughoutSouth Africa.Wheneverdateofsymptomonsetismissing,weestimateitfromthedateofspecimencollectionusingamultiple imputation approach repeated 100 times for each missing value. We apply a likelihood-based method (method 1) for simultaneousestimationofinitialRtandtheSI;estimateinitialRtfromSIdistributionsestablishedfrompriorfieldstudies (method2);andtheWallingaandTeunismethod(method3)tomodelthetemporalvariationofRt. Results:12,360confirmedpH1N1caseswerereportedinthecentralregistry.Duringtheperiodofexponentialgrowthof theepidemic(June21toAugust3,2009),wesimultaneouslyestimateameanRtof1.47(95%CI:1.30–1.72)andmeanSIof 2.78days(95%CI:1.80–3.75)(method1).FieldstudiesfoundameanSIof2.3daysbetweenprimarycasesandlaboratory- confirmedsecondarycases,and2