Setting an Optimal α That Minimizes Errors in Null Hypothesis Significance Tests 英文参考文献.docVIP

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Setting an Optimal α That Minimizes Errors in Null Hypothesis Significance Tests 英文参考文献.doc

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Setting an Optimal α That Minimizes Errors in Null Hypothesis Significance Tests 英文参考文献

SettinganOptimalaThatMinimizesErrorsinNull HypothesisSignificanceTests JosephF.Mudge*,LeanneF.Baker,ChristopherB.Edge,JeffE.Houlahan DepartmentofBiology,UniversityofNewBrunswick,SaintJohn,NewBrunswick,Canada Abstract Nullhypothesissignificancetestinghasbeenunderattackinrecentyears,partlyowingtothearbitrarynatureofsettinga (thedecision-makingthresholdandprobabilityofTypeIerror)ataconstantvalue,usually0.05.Ifthegoalofnullhypothesis testingistopresentconclusionsinwhichwehavethehighestpossibleconfidence,thentheonlylogicaldecision-making threshold is the value that minimizes the probability (or occasionally, cost) of making errors. Setting a to minimize the combinationofTypeIandTypeIIerroratacriticaleffectsizecaneasilybeaccomplishedfortraditionalstatisticaltestsby calculating theaassociatedwiththeminimumaverageof aandbatthecriticaleffect size.Thistechniquealso hasthe flexibilitytoincorporatepriorprobabilitiesofnullandalternatehypothesesand/orrelativecostsofTypeIandTypeIIerrors, ifknown.UsinganoptimalaresultsinstrongerscientificinferencesbecauseitestimatesandminimizesbothTypeIerrors andrelevantTypeIIerrorsforatest.Italsoresultsingreatertransparencyconcerningassumptionsaboutrelevanteffect size(s)andtherelativecostsofTypeIandIIerrors.Bycontrast,theuseofa=0.05resultsinarbitrarydecisionsaboutwhat effect sizes will likely be considered significant, if real, and results in arbitrary amounts of Type II error for meaningful potentialeffectsizes.Wecannotidentifyarationaleforcontinuingtoarbitrarilyusea=0.05fornullhypothesissignificance testsinanyfield,whenitispossibletodetermineanoptimala. Citation: MudgeJF,Baker LF,EdgeCB,HoulahanJE (2012)SettinganOptimal aThat Minimizes ErrorsinNullHypothesisSignificanceTests. PLoSONE 7(2): e32734.doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0032734 Editor:ZhengSu,Genentech,UnitedStatesofAmerica ReceivedJune20,2011;AcceptedFebruary2,2012;PublishedFebruary28,2012 Copyright: ? 2012 Mudge et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms