Simplified Models of Vector Control Impact upon Malaria Transmission by Zoophagic Mosquitoes 英文参考文献.docVIP

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Simplified Models of Vector Control Impact upon Malaria Transmission by Zoophagic Mosquitoes 英文参考文献.doc

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SimplifiedModelsofVectorControlImpactuponMalaria TransmissionbyZoophagicMosquitoes SamsonS.Kiware1,2*,NakulChitnis3,4,SarahJ.Moore1,5,GregorJ.Devine1,6,SilasMajambere1,6 , StephenMerrill2,GerryF.Killeen1,6 1BiomedicalandEnvironmentalThematicGroup,IfakaraHealthInstitute,Ifakara,Tanzania,2DepartmentofMathematics,Statistics,andComputerScience,Marquette University, Milwaukee, Wisconsin, United States of America, 3Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland,4UniversityofBasel,Basel,Switzerland,5LondonSchoolofHygieneandTropicalMedicine,London,UnitedKingdom,6VectorGroup,LiverpoolSchoolof TropicalMedicine,Liverpool,UnitedKingdom Abstract Background:Highcoverageofpersonalprotectionmeasuresthatkillmosquitoesdramaticallyreducemalariatransmission wherevectorpopulationsdependuponhumanblood.However,mostprimarymalariavectorsoutsideofsub-SaharanAfrica canbeclassifiedas‘‘veryzoophagic,’’meaningtheyfeedoccasionally(,10%ofbloodmeals)uponhumans,sopersonal protectioninterventionshavenegligibleimpactupontheirsurvival. Methods and Findings: We extended a published malaria transmission model to examine the relationship between transmission,control,andthebaselineproportionofbloodmealsobtainedfromhumans(humanbloodindex).Thelower limitofthehumanbloodindexenablesderivationofsimplifiedmodelsforzoophagicvectorsthat(1)Relyononlythree field-measurable parameters. (2) Predict immediate and delayed (with and without assuming reduced human infectivity, respectively)impactsofpersonalprotectionmeasuresupontransmission.(3)Illustratehowappreciableindirectcommunal- levelprotectionfornon-userscanbeaccruedthroughdirectpersonalprotectionofusers.(4)Suggestthecoverageand efficacythresholdsrequiredtoattainepidemiologicalimpact.Thefindingssuggestthatimmediate,indirect,community- wide protection of users and non-users alike may linearly relate to the efficacy of a user’s direct personal protection, regardlessofwhetherthatisachievedbykillingorrepel