Simpsons Paradox, Lords Paradox, and Suppression Effects are the same phenomenon – the reversal paradox 英文参考文献.docVIP

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Simpsons Paradox, Lords Paradox, and Suppression Effects are the same phenomenon – the reversal paradox 英文参考文献.doc

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Simpsons Paradox, Lords Paradox, and Suppression Effects are the same phenomenon – the reversal paradox 英文参考文献

Emerging Themes in BioMedCentral Analytic perspective Open Access Simpsons Paradox, Lords Paradox, and Suppression Effects are the same phenomenon – the reversal paradox Yu-Kang Tu*1,2, David Gunnell3 and Mark S Gilthorpe1 Address: 1Biostatistics Unit, Centre for Epidemiology Biostatistics, University of Leeds, 30/32 Hyde Terrace, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK, 2Leeds Dental Institute, University of Leeds, Clarendon Road, Leeds, LS2 9LU, UK and 3Department of Social Medicine, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 2PR, UK Email: Yu-Kang Tu* - y.k.tu@leeds.ac.uk; David Gunnell - d.j.gunnell@bristol.ac.uk; Mark S Gilthorpe - m.s.gilthorpe@leeds.ac.uk * Corresponding author Published: 22 January 2008 Received: 2 April 2007 Accepted: 22 January 2008 Emerging Themes in Epidemiology 2008, 5:2 doi:10.1186/1742-7622-5-2 This article is available from: /content/5/1/2 ? 2008 Tu et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. Abstract This article discusses three statistical paradoxes that pervade epidemiological research: Simpsons paradox, Lords paradox, and suppression. These paradoxes have important implications for the interpretation of evidence from observational studies. This article uses hypothetical scenarios to illustrate how the three paradoxes are different manifestations of one phenomenon – the reversal paradox – depending on whether the outcome and explanatory variables are categorical, continuous or a combination of both; this renders the issues and remedies for any one to be similar for all three. Although the three statistical paradoxes occur in different types of variables, they share the same characteristic: the association between two variables can be reversed, diminished, or en