Trade Liberalization and Climate Change A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of the Impacts on Global Agriculture 英文参考文献.docVIP

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Trade Liberalization and Climate Change A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of the Impacts on Global Agriculture 英文参考文献.doc

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Trade Liberalization and Climate Change A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of the Impacts on Global Agriculture 英文参考文献

Water 2011, 3, 526-550; doi:10.3390/w3020526 OPEN ACCESS water ISSN 2073-4441 /journal/water Article Trade Liberalization and Climate Change: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of the Impacts on Global Agriculture Alvaro Calzadilla 1, Katrin Rehdanz 1,2,* and Richard S.J. Tol 3,4,5,6 1 Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Hindenburgufer 66, 24105 Kiel, Germany; E-Mail: alvaro.calzadilla@ifw-kiel.de 2 Department of Economics, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Olshausenstrasse 40, 24118 Kiel, Germany 3 Economic and Social Research Institute, Whitaker Square, Sir John Rogerson‘s Quay, Dublin 2, Ireland; E-Mail: richard.tol@esri.ie 4 Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands 5 Department of Spatial Economics, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1105, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands 6 Department of Economics, Arts Building, Trinity College, Dublin 2, Ireland * Author to whom correspondence should be addressed; E-Mail: katrin.rehdanz@ifw-kiel.de; Tel.: +49-431-8814-407; Fax: +49-431-85853. Received: 30 March 2011; in revised form: 18 April 2011 / Accepted: 20 April 2011 / Published: 6 May 2011 Abstract: Based on predicted changes in the magnitude and distribution of global precipitation, temperature and river flow under the A1B and A2 scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC SRES), this study assesses the potential impacts of climate change and CO2 fertilization on global agriculture, and its interactions with trade liberalization, as proposed for the Doha Development Round. The analysis uses the new version of the GTAP-W model, which distinguishes between rainfed and irrigated agriculture and implements water as an explicit factor of production for irrigated agriculture. Significant reductions in agricultural tariffs lead to modest changes in regional w