基于部分概率权重矩洪水频率参数估计方法.pdf

Journal of Water Resources Research 水资源研究, 2012, 1, 375-379 doi:10.4236/jwrr.2012.15058 Published Online October 2012 (/journal/jwrr.html) Estimation of GEV Distribution Parameters Using * Partial Probability Weighted Moments Xiuhong Yuan, Songbai Song# College of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering, Northwest AF University, Yangling Email: yuanxiuhong911@126.com, #ssb6533@ th rd th Received: Jun. 18 , 2012; revised: Jul. 3 , 2012; accepted: Jul. 12 , 2012 Abstract: In order to reduce the uncertainty of the design flood estimation with larger return period, the prin- ciples and methods of Partial probability weighted moments (PPWM) were used to estimate parameters of Generalized extreme distribution (GEV). MATLAB programs were used to achieve the parameters’ numerical solution of the GEV from PPWM on the basis of previous studies. Monte Carlo experiments were performed to assess the statistical properties of parameters estimation of the GEV distribution by the method of PPWM from different lower bound censored samples. The research results indicate that the method of PPWM from lower bound censored samples still has good effectiveness in high quantile estimation. Keywords: Partial Probability Weighted Moments; Generalized Extreme Value Distribution; Monte Carlo Experiments; Parameter Estimating 基于部分概率权重矩的洪水频率参数估计方法* 原秀红，宋松柏# 西北农林科技大学，水利与建筑工程学院，杨凌 Email: yuanxiuhong911@126.com, #ssb6533@ 收稿日期：2012 年 6 月 18 日；修回日期：2012 年 7 月 3 日；录用日期：2012 年 7 月 1