滑坡空间预测中信息量模型的改进及应用.pdfVIP

学兔兔 第33卷第3期 土木 建 筑与 环 境 工程 Journal of Civil。Architectural＆ Environmental Engineering Vo1．33 No．3 2011年 6月 Jun．2011 滑坡空间预测中信息量模型的改进及应用 赵 衡，宋二祥 (清华大学 土木工程系，北京 100084) 摘 要：确定未来可能发生滑坡的区域，即滑坡空间预测对城乡土地规划具有重要的指导意义。针 对国内在滑坡空间预测中应用较多的信息量模型，通过理论推导表明其使用前提是各影响因素相 互独立，以一简单算例说明了在滑坡空间预测中因素间相关性对预测结果的影响，并建议引入因子 分析评估和减少各因素间的相关性。将基于因子分析的信息量模型应用于某一流域，统计了具有 连续性特征的影响因素与滑坡概率之间的关系，结合以往的研究和分析表明滑坡概率随各因素的 变化趋势具有一定的规律，并基于此建议了对影响因素进行状态离散化的方法。以5年前的滑坡 作为输入数据，用近5年内的滑坡对预测结果进行了验证，表明信息量模型能较好地预测未来发生 滑坡的区域。 关键词：滑坡；信息量模型；影响因素；离散化；因子分析 中图分类号：P642．22 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1674 4764(2011)03—0038—07 Improved Information Value Model and Its Application in the Spatial Prediction of Landslides ZHAO Heng，SONG Er—xiang (Department of Civil Engineering，Tsinghua University，Beijing 100084，P．R．China) Abstract：Information Value Model is used frequently in domestic landslide hazard zonation prediction． which plays a very important role for land—use planning especially in mountain area．Through theoretical analysis。the prerequisite of Information Value Model which should be used with influence factors independent from each other is studied．Factor Analysis is adopted to evaluate and eliminate the influence of correlation between influence—factors in spatial prediction of landslides which are showed through case study．Relationships between landslides and influence—factors are studied based on a certain watershed in which the Information Value Model and Factor Analysis are applied．The probability of landslides changes regularly with the inftuence