风电功率短期预测与非参数区间估计.pdf

第 31 卷 第 25 期 中 国 电 机 工 程 学 报 Vol.31 No.25 Sep.5, 2011 10 2011 年 9 月 5 日 Proceedings of the CSEE ©2011 Chin.Soc.for Elec.Eng. 0258-8013 (2011) 25-0010-07 TM 71 A 470 40 文章编号： 中图分类号： 文献标志码： 学科分类号： ⋅ 风电功率短期预测及非参数区间估计 周松林，茆美琴，苏建徽 (合肥工业大学教育部光伏系统工程中心，安徽省 合肥市 230009) Short-term Forecasting of Wind Power and Non-parametric Confidence Interval Estimation ZHOU Songlin, MAO Meiqin, SU Jianhui (Research Center for Photovoltaic System Engineering Ministry of Education, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, Anhui Province, China) ABSTRACT: To meet the requirements of network planning, 0 引言 the forecasting system of wind power should provide exact forecasted value and make a reasonable assessment of risk 对风电场的功率进行短期预测，将使电力调度 which implied in forecasted values. Artificial neural network 部门能够提前根据风电功率变化及时调整调度计 was applied to forecasting wind speed and wind direction, and 划，保证电能质量，减少系统的备用容量，降低电 wind power forecasting results were achieved according to the 力系统运行成本，这是减轻风电系统对电网造成不 measured power curve. The uncertainty factors of the wind power forecasting were analyzed, and a non-parametric 利影响、提高电网中风电装机比例的一种有效途 confidence interval estimation method was proposed based on 径。目前，国内外对于风力发电各种课题的研究越 analyzing the statistical characteristics of forecast errors. By 来越深入，但其中关于风电场风速和功率预测的研 means of the method, a probability density function model for 究还达不到令人满意的程度。 forecasting errors in each power section was established,