基于GMM改进的信息系统安全态势实时预测研究.pdf

第 34 卷 第 2 期 计算机应用与软件 VoL 34 No . 2 2017年 2 月 Compute Applications and Software Feb . 2017 基 于 GMM改进的信息系统安全态势实时预测研究 顾 兆 军 王 蕊 莉 王 帅 卿 (中国民航大学计算机科学与技术学院天津300300) 摘 要 现有安全态势预测方法由于消耗较大和耗时较长而造成预测效果不佳，考虑到信息系统的结构复杂、 信息交互频繁等特点，依据典型灰色模型GM(1,1)的消耗低、样本小、适用性强、短期预测效果好等特点对信息 系统进行实时的安全态势预测。同时针对GM(1,1)模型的随机波动性小的问题,结合马尔可夫 （Markov)链适用 于随机波动较大的特点，提出一种以灰色GM(1,1)为预测原型，用马尔可夫链对GM(1,1)预测模型进行误差修 正的实时信息系统安全态势预测模型。实验结果表明，在信息系统安全态势预测方面，该模型能够较准确地预测 安全态势的总体趋势，且预测精度高于原灰色-马尔可夫模型的精度。 关键词 安全态势预测灰色理论马尔可夫模型 中图分类号 TP393.08 文献标识码 A DOI ：10. 3969/j. issn. 1000-386x. 2017.02.049 RESEARCH ON REAL-TIME FORECAST OF SECURITY POSTURE OF INFORMATION SYSTEM BASED ON IMPROVED GREY-MARKOV CHAIN Gu Zhaojun Wang Ruili Wang Shuaiqing ( College o f Computer Science and Technology, Civil Aviation University o f China, Tianjin 300300, China) Abstract Aiming at the problem of bad prediction result because of large consumption and time consuming in the ex­ isting security posture prediction methods,the information system is real-time forecasted in security posture according to the characteristics of low consumption, small sample, stronger applicability and excellent performance of short-time fore­ casting of the typical gray G M (1,1) model,considering the problems of large-scale,complex structure and frequent in­ formation exchange of information system. Meanwhile, aiming at the problem of low stochastic volatility of G M (1,1) model,an improved G M (1,1) model is built, which combines with the characteristic of larger random fluctuation of Markov chain applies. Thus,using gray G M (1,1) as a prototype of forecast,a real-time forecast of information system se­ curity po