重庆市县际公路交通安全预警方法研究.pdf

学兔兔 公路交通技术 2013年6月 第3期 Technology of Highway and Transport Jun．2013 No．3 重庆市县际公路交通安全预警方法研究 屠书荣，姚 阳 (重庆交通大学土木建筑学院，重庆 400074) 摘 要：从县际公路交通安全的影响因素分析入手，构建较为完善的县际公路交通安全评价指标体系。应用层次分 析法一熵值法确定评价指标权重，并通过集值统计方法计算评价指标分值，构建县际公路交通安全模糊综合评价模 型与评价方法。根据县际公路交通安全预警要求，提出预警指标、警度和警限标准，并以某县际公路为例，开展公路 交通安全预警方法的应用研究，结果证明预警方法具有合理性和可行性，可为县际公路交通安全管理提供理论指导 与技术支持。 关键词：县际公路；交通安全；预警方法；研究 文章编号：1009—6477(2013)03—0133—06 中图分类号：U491．1 文献标识码：A Research on Early Warning Methods for Traffic Safety of Inter—county Highways inChongqing Municipality TU Shurong，YAO Yang Abstract：Starting from analysis for factors influencing traffic safety of inter—county highways，this paper establishes a perfect evaluation index system for traffic safety on inter-county highways．The paper determines the weights of evaluation indices by means of analytic hierarchy process—entropy method， calculates scores of evaluation indices via the methodology of set occurrence statistics and establishes a fuzzy synthetic evaluation model and evaluation methods for traffic safety of inter-county highways．In accordance with the eady warning requirements for traffic safety of inter—county highways，the paper proposes early warning indices，degrees，and limit standards．Research on application of early warning methods for traffic safety of highways is developed with some inter—county highway as an example．The resuhs prove that the early warning methods are reasonable and feasible and can provide theoretical guide and technical support for traffic safety management of inter-county highways． Key words：inter—country highways；traffic safety；early warning methods；research