中远08年巨亏原因分析(中英对照).docx

在这盈亏急剧变化的几个月内,恰逢干散货市场牛熊交替之时。 The sharp change of profit and loss happened in a few months, coincides with the boom-and-bust alternate of dry bulk market. 中远上半年FFA盈利的主要原因,源自波罗的海指数BDI最后的疯狂。5月20日,BDI创下了历史上最疯狂的点位,11793点,随后震荡回落。进入第三季度后,回落的速度加快,由第二季度末的9589点暴跌至9月30日的3217点,跌幅达66.5%。 The main reason that COSCO profit from FFA in the first half year, is the final crazy increase of BDI index. In May 20th, BDI has set the record of the history of the craziest points, 11793 points, followed by shock down. After entering the third quarter, down faster, plunged from 39589 points at the end of the second quarter to 3217 point at September 30th, the decline range reaches 66.5%. BDI指数出现暴跌,主要是由于第三季度为航运业传统淡季. The collapse of the BDI index, is mainly due to the third quarter is off-season for the shipping industry and the traditional. 另外,引发BDI暴跌、FFA市场遭遇抛售狂潮还有一个非常关键的原因。9月华尔街金融危机爆发,(深陷泥潭的高盛、摩根斯坦利等)大投行和金融机构纷纷撤离FFA市场,加深了人们对FFA的抛售恐慌。 In addition, there is another very key reason that triggers a slump in BDI, and the FFA market Suffered sell-off. In September, a financial crisis broke out on Wall Street, many banks and financial institutions have withdrawn from the FFA market, deepening the panic selling from people on FFA. 2.操作经验不足 2.lack of operation experience 我国大多数企业对于干散货远期运费衍生品还不是很熟悉，使用FFA对运费风险进行套期保值的很少，参与的企业数量大概只有几十家，且整体经营不善。 The majority of our business is not very familiar with the dry bulk forward freight derivatives, FFA is rarely used to hedge against the risk of shipping, the number of participating enterprises probably only dozens of, and poor overall business. 其中参与到国际干散货运费市场的最大中国企业就是中国远洋，根据波罗的海交易所统计，中国远洋的FFA交易量全球排名前十。中国远洋在FFA上的操作失误和巨额亏损，也显示出中国企业参与国际干散货运费市场的经验不足。 Which Participate in the international dry bulk shipping market, the largest Chinese companies, is COSCO, according to the Baltic Exchange statistics, COSCO’s FFA trading volume of the worlds top ten. COSCO operational errors and huge losses in the FFA, also shows the lack of experience of Chinese enterprises to partici