数值天气预报基本问题及展望.pptxVIP

数值天气预报基本问题、及展望;Outline ;数值预报的应用日益广泛： 中、短期天气预报 气候数值模拟、气候预测和气候变化 中小尺度数值模拟 天气预报时间分类 0-2小时 临近预报 2-12小时 甚短期预报 12-48小时 短期预报 3-10天 中期预报 10天以上 长期预报 ;国家气象中心数值预报最近10多年的发展;主要数值天气预报业务体系各系统的侧重功能;到目前为止;GRAPES;三份重要文件;;中国气象局：2014.10.30 《气象科技创新体系建设指导意见（2014-2020年）》《国家气象科技创新工程（2014—2020年）实施方案》 ; 一、优化气象相关专业和人才结构。办好大气科学、应用气象学、大气物理与大气环境等学科专业，加强数值天气预报、大气探测、公共气象服务、气象防灾减灾等方向的人才培养。 支持行业特色高校统筹招生计划增量与存量，适度扩大大气科学类专???本科生和研究生招生规模。;一个重要事件;宇如聪：解读（2015.4.23）;1.1 Basic Concepts of NWP;1.1 Basic Concepts of NWP;(2) What are the main components of NWP?;(2a) Model Equations -Dynamics; Small-scale physical processes cannot be represented explicitly in computer models. They must be represented by bulk formulae. This is called parameterization of the sub-grid scale physics（次网格参数化）. ; Condensation phenomena（冷凝现象） Solar radiation（太阳辐射） Long-wave radiation（长波辐射） Orographic effects（地形效应） Land-atmosphere interactions（陆-气相互作用） Ocean-atmosphere interactions（海-气相互作用） Turbulent transfer of momentum and heat（湍流输运）. ;;;NWP is an initial-value problem. The model integrates the equations forward in time, starting from the initial conditions（从初始场开始，沿时间方向积分）. In the early NWP experiments, hand interpolations of the observations to grid points were performed（手工插值-主观分析）. The need for an automatic “objective analysis” quickly became apparent.（客观分析） Accurate methods of Data Assimilation（资料同化方法） ; In 1904, the Norwegian hydrodynamist V. Bjerknes suggested that: The weather could be quantitatively predicted by applying the complete set of hydrodynamic and thermodynamic equations to carefully analyzed initial atmospheric states. ;Vilhelm Bjerknes威廉 皮叶克尼斯; 挪威气象学家、物理学家、近代天气学和大气动力学主要创始人之一，气象学挪威学派的创始人。;L.F. Richardson (1922) Weather Prediction by Numerical Process, Cambridge University Press ; ;The first electronic computer: ENIAC; In 1948 a young meteorological theoretician, Jule Charney, succeeded to derive simplified mathematical models of the atmospheric motions,