合肥市平均气温动态变化地非平稳时序分析.PDF

安徽农业大学学报, 2013, 40(6): 1059-1062 Journal of Anhui Agricultural University 网络出版时间：2013-10-29 11:53:01 [URL] /kcms/detail/34.1162.S1153.002.html 合肥市平均气温动态变化的非平稳时序分析 * 罗 妤，吴 坚 ，徐鑫晶 (安徽农业大学信息与计算机学院，合肥 230036) 摘 要：近100 多年来，全球平均气温经历了冷—暖—冷—暖2 次波动，总体上为上升趋势。进入20 世纪80 年代后，全球气温明显上升。1981 ～1990 年全球平均气温比 100 年前上升了0.48 ℃，近年来气候变化也有越来越 恶劣的趋势。利用时间序列分析建立非平稳时序模型，研究自1985 ～2009 年合肥市平均气温动态变化数据，对合 肥市近25 年来的气候变化进行分析，通过数据的分析处理，建立拟合函数进行预测，希望对未来合肥市气温变化 提供参考。 关键词：非平稳时序；趋势变化项r(t)；周期变化项v(t)；随机处理项x(t) 中图分类号：P468.021 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1672−352X (2013)06−1059−04 Application of non-stationary time series analysis in dynamic change of average temperature in Hefei city LUO Yu, WU Jian, XU Xin-jing (School of Information and Computer Science, Anhui Agricultural University, Hefei 230036) Abstract: Nearly 100 years, the global mean temperature experienced two waves as cold-warm-cold-warm, in a rising trend on the whole. In the late 1980’s, global temperature rose significantly. The average global tem- perature during the period of 1981-1990 was 0.48 ℃ higher than that 100 years before. In recent years, the climate has a trend of getting worse. In this paper, a time series analysis was used to set up a non-stationary time series model for studying the dynamic change of average temperature in Hefei city during the period of 1985-2009. As a result, through the analysis the climatic change of the past 25 years in Hefei city, a fitting function was established to forecast the climate of Hefei city in the future Key words: non-stationary time series analysis ；trend change item r(t) ；periodic change v(t) ；random processing item x(t) 近 100 多年来，全球平均气温经历了：冷→暖