具有多个失效模式的高拱坝失效概率计算.pdf

2 N o. 2 2007 6 HYDROSCIENCE AND ENGINEERING Jun. 2007 1, 2 1 陈在铁 , 任青文 ( 1. , 2 10098; 2. , 2 15600) : 4 . , , . : ; ; ; : TV 69 8. 21 : A : 1009- 640X ( 2007) 02- 0054- 05 Failure probability calculation of high arch dam w ith multifailurem ode 1, 2 1 CH EN Z a t e , REN Q ngw en ( 1. Colleg e of C iv ilEng ineering, H ohai Univ ersity, N anj ing 210098, China; 2. Shazhou Institute of Technology, Zhangj iagang 215600, China Ab tract: Four m ajor fa lure m odes for h gh arch dam s, nam e ly destab l zat on dam lost stab l ty fa lure, shear ng sl pp ng fa lure, excess crack ng and m ancau sed destruct on, are presented by m eans of fa lure tree analys s. Based on the calcu lat on o f shear ngsl pp ng fa lure probab l ty o f h gh arch dam s, the ca lculat on m ethod and procedures are presented by u se of the Second M om ent M ethod for ca lculat on of the occurrence probab l ty o f the m ajo r fa lure m odes o f h gh arch dam s, and the re lat on degree betw een the m ajor fa lure m odes and the fa lure probab l ty w th mu lt fa lure m odes o f the h gh arch dam are ca lculated. K ey w ord : fa lure m ode; fa lure probab l ty; r sk eva luat on; h gh arch dam s [ 1] . , 200 m . [ 2] 30