民族人口生命表编制方法及应用——以云南八个民族为例.pdfVIP

Abstract Abstract Yunnan province has many nationalities. 25 ethnic minorities have formed a certain settlement region and scale population, in which there are specific to 15 ethnic groups in Yunnan. Different ethnic group has different development level of social economics and culture, which performs on population death, that is, different ethnic group has different death level and life expectancy. Comparing and analyzing of different national death index, which in turn contributes to an understanding of the development level of ethnic minorities and providing scientific basis for the allocation of social resources, for example medical and health care. It is playing a guiding role to support the development of ethnic minorities in Yunnan province. Life table is a very good tool to research population death. In order to compile an accurate life table, we need a certain number of populations. If population is less, the death rate is likely to have large fluctuations. We directly use such mortality to compile a life table which can not reflect the population death force truly. So before preparation of ethnic groups with small population life table, we need to use statistical method of graduation the mortality. Part of the minority population in Yunnan province is less, the mortality need to graduation before compiling the life table. Graduation is a statistical method which using initial estimates, combining with prior to improve the initial estimate. The purpose of this method is to get a better estimate. Prior views different expression will produce different kinds of graduation methods, like the parameters of the graduation method, the Spline graduation method, Bayesian graduation method, etc. In this paper, we mainly use Spline graduation and Bayesian graduation. Spline graduation dont need to know mortality priori in