房地产趋势与经济稳定_测度两者周期.pdfVIP

产业经济 INDUSTRIAL ECONOMY 房地产趋势与经济稳定：测度两者周期* Real Estate Trend and Economic Stability: Measuring the Two Cycles 向为民 内容提要 房地产周期是经济周期的组成部分 且二者存在关联性 选择房地产周期与经济周期的代表性指标 利用 ， 。 ， 时间序列经济计量技术对 期间两者的关联性进行检验 结果表明 两者具有同向增长趋势和长期稳定的 1978-2008 。 ： 均衡关系 房地产增加值每增长 经济增长平均提高 两者在短期内互为 影响 上一期经济增长 ， 1％ ， 1.1％ 。 Granger ； 1%，导致本期经济增长波动0.54% ，房地产增加值增长波动0.25% ，房地产增加值对经济增长具有促进效应。 关键词 房地产房地产增加值经济周期 作者单位 重庆理工大学经济与贸易学院 重庆 400054 Xiang Weimin Abstract: Real estate cycle is the component of business cycle, between which there is strong correlation. This paper has chosen representative indices in real estate cycle and business cycle and tries to test the correlation between them from 1978 to 2008 with the employment of chronological economic measurement technology. The result shows that Real-estate Added Value (RAV) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) display co-current growth trend and long-term and stable equilibrium re- lationship, as every 1 percent increase of RAV leads to 1.1 percent rise of economic growth on average. Besides, real estate cycle and business cycle exhibit reciprocal Granger influence in the short term; 1 percent increase of economic growth in previous period causes 0.54 percent fluctuation of economic growth in this period and accordingly 0.25 percent fluctuation of RAV growth. In conclusion, RAV has facilitating effect on economic growth. Key words: real estate, real-estate added value, business cycle 房地产业是我国主要支柱产业之一 其周期波动必将引起国民经济的动 ， 荡