短期风能预测 A Method for Short-Term Wind Power Prediction With Multiple Observation Points.pdf

IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, VOL. 27, NO. 2, MAY 2012 579 A Method for Short-Term Wind Power Prediction With Multiple Observation Points Muhammad Khalid, Graduate Student Member, IEEE, and Andrey V. Savkin, Senior Member, IEEE Abstract— This paper presents a method to improve the short- generate higher revenues and decrease costs in various power term wind power prediction at a given turbine using information markets [4]. Accurate and reliable predictions of power gener- from numerical weather prediction and from multiple observation ation are of importance to electricity transmission and also es- points, which correspond to the locations of nearby turbines at a sential to competitive renewable energy supply. particular wind farm site. The prediction of wind power is achieved in two stages; in the first stage wind speed is predicted using our Our system for the prediction of wind power is based on proposed method. In the second stage, the wind speed to output measurements from multiple observation points. These mea- power conversion is accomplished using power curve model. The surements are transmitted over communication channels to our proposed wind power prediction method is tested using real mea- designed predictor. In fact, our system is an example of a net- surements and NWP data from one of the wind farm sites in Aus- worked state estimation system. Such systems have attracted a tralia. The performance is compared with the persistence and Grey lot of attention in recent years; see, e.g., [5]–[7]. The multiple predictor