菲律宾增入口米价暴升.doc

F.4 Economics: News Analysis Vanessa Pang F.4A (31) Viebbe Wu F.4A (38) 菲律賓增入口 米價暴升 2009-12-10 【明報專訊】全球最大稻米入口國菲律賓近期瘋狂買米，去年一度出現的米價「暴升期」又有重臨之勢。有米商周二向菲律賓提出低質稻米每噸630美元的叫價，價錢比上月高出30%，若與今年初的每噸320美元相比 ，價格足足升近1倍。 米價急升及供應緊張，引起市場對亞洲食品通脹飈升的憂慮。經濟學家諾伊曼（Frederic Neumann）說：「這有點像去年初的情景。」去年初全球糧價炒高，每噸米一度升至1000美元。全球2009至2010年度的稻米產量，料將出現5年來首度減少，主因是印度雨季為40年來最乾燥、菲律賓則遭受連串颱風襲擊摧毁了當地農作物，還有厄爾尼諾現象加劇區內乾旱，使稻米減產。隨着價格攀升，市場擔心各國可能會囤積糧食及實施出口限制，這些措施去年曾令米價進一步上升。但亦有交易商認為毋須太恐慌，皆因一些關鍵稻米出口國如泰國等庫存仍處高水平。因全球進口需求仍疲弱，有進口商認為明年初米價會回落。 The rise of the price of ‘Philippine rice’ Issue describing Because of the El Nino condition (厄爾尼諾現象) and the typhoon attack in Philippine. Rice in Philippine is in poor harvest. The supply of the rice in Philippine is falling. The price of the Philippine rice is US$630 per ton; compare with the price in the early year (US$320 per ton) is almost a double. Increase in demand of ‘Thailand rice’ Issue explanation: Philippine rice is an economic good. Its quantity is not enough to satisfy all our wants for it and more of it is preferred. Besides, people are willing to pay a larger amount of money (US$320-US$630) for it. Hence, there is positive cost of getting it and the good is allocated to the highest-valued user. As?the supply of the Philippine rice falls due to the poor harvest, there are two effects accordingly: firstly, equilibrium price of the rice will increase; secondly, the equilibrium quantity of the Philippine rice will decrease. According to the law of demand, when the price of the good (Philippine rice) increases, quantity demanded decreases. Visa versa, ceteris paribus. Because of the price of the Philippine rice increase, people are more willing to buy Thailand rice as they are substitutes (goods that can be replaced by each other to satisfy the same want). Therefore the demand of Thailand rice will increase, as the price of Thailand rice remains unchanged. That means a change in other factors (not the Thaila