【2017年整理】14与份讲义(RenderChapter5).ppt

1 - # Chapter 5 Forecasting Learning Objectives Students will be able to: Understand and know when to use various families of forecasting models. Compare moving averages, exponential smoothing, and trend time-series models. Seasonally adjust data. Understand Delphi and other qualitative decision-making approaches. Compute a variety of error measures. Chapter Outline 5.1 Introduction 5.2 Types of Forecasts 5.3 Scatter Diagrams and Time Series 5.4 Measures of Forecast Accuracy 5.5 Time-Series Forecasting Models 5.6 Monitoring and Controlling  Forecasts 5.7 Using the Computer to Forecast Introduction Eight steps to forecasting: Determine the use of the forecast. Select the items or quantities to be forecasted. Determine the time horizon of the forecast. Select the forecasting model or models. Gather the data needed to make the forecast. Validate the forecasting model. Make the forecast. Implement the results. Types of Forecasts Qualitative Methods Delphi Methodinteractive group process consisting of obtaining information from a group of respondents through questionnaires and surveys Jury of Executive Opinionobtains opinions of a small group of high-level managers in combination with statistical models Sales Force Compositeallows each sales person to estimate the sales for his/her region and then compiles the data at a district or national level Consumer Market Surveysolicits input from customers or potential customers regarding their future purchasing plans Scatter Diagrams Measures of Forecast Accuracy Forecast errors allow one to see how well the forecast model works and compare that model with other forecast models. Measures of Forecast Accuracy (continued) Measures of forecast accuracy include: Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)  Mean Squared Error (MSE) Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) Hospital Days – Forecast Error Example Ms. Smith forecasted total hospital inpatient days last year. Now that the actual data are known, she is reev