人民币汇率一揽子挂钩假设性探讨.pdfVIP

11/0 1/2004 NDF NDF NDF 500 200122 02 16840-1002, 139-185-26754 han.gf@ 1 Abstract We have a proposed study upon the currency basket peg for the Chinese Yuan (CNY). The weights in the basket for major foreign currencies are estim ated based upon the objective function of stabilizing the trade balance. We find that the USD, the Euro, and the Yen account for more than 77% of the total basket, and the USD and the Yen dominate other currencies. Further, Taking into consideration Hong Kong’s re-exports (i.e., Mainland’s trade via Hong Kong) will increase the weight of the USD significantly. This result contrasts the one suggested by Goldstein (2003, 2004), where the USD, the Euro, and the Yen have roughly the equal weights. The difference comes from the fact, that the change of the trade balance is related not only to the exports, but also to the imports, the price (the exchange rate) elasticity for the imports and exports, and the household’s propensity to spend. We also examine whether the change of the CNY NDF could be fitted in our trade balance model. It shows that, after controlling serial correlations, the change of the CNY NDF almost solely reflects the change of the USD, and the effects of oth