何者为王--论新中国邮票回报的决定因素.PDFVIP

何者为王？--论新中国邮票回报的决定因素 陈欣1 2 ，陈娴 上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院 电子邮箱：xinch@ 通信地址：上海市法华镇路 535 号，200052 摘要 集邮界对什么是影响邮票回报最重要的因素一直存在重大争议，即是“发行量为王”， 是“消耗为王”，还是“题材为王”？ 这三者都是影响邮票存世量或需求的重要因素，因而 会对邮票的回报产生显著影响。到底哪种因素更为重要？大家众说纷纭，一直也没有系统的 量化分析来验证。本文通过对新中国邮票的发行后年均回报率及其影响因素进行了全面系统 的分析，研究表明总体上新中国邮票为集邮者提供了不菲的收益，显著超出同时期的一年定 期存款回报。在决定新中国邮票年均超额回报的因素中，消耗最为重要；发行量是显著影响 邮票回报的因素之一，但其经济意义较弱，且对编年邮票回报影响并不显著；传统题材对早 期邮票回报影响微弱，但近年发生的重大事件题材对邮票回报影响巨大；此外，邮票的设计 印刷对回报也有一定影响。本文的证据支持“消耗为王”的观点。 关键词：发行量 消耗 邮票回报 收藏品投资 Who is the king? – on Determinants of New China Stamp Returns Xin Chen and Xian Chen (Shanghai Jiao Tong University; Shanghai Donghai Vocational Technical College) Abstract There have been long disputes among stamp collectors about what stamp features affect stamp returns the most, i.e., “Issuance volume is the king”, “Usage is the king” or “Topic is the king”? They are all important factors influencing either the existing volume or demand of stamps, and therefore are likely to affect stamp returns. In spite of the extant disputes, there have been no systematic empirical studies about the issue. This paper examines long-term after-issuance annual returns of Chinese stamps and their determinants, and finds Chinese stamps provide decent returns for collectors in terms of exceeding comparable one-year CD rates. Among factors affecting annual excess returns of Chinese stamps, variables related to usage are the most important; issuance volume has significantly negative impact on returns of early stamps, but its coefficient has weak economic implications and it i