模糊多态贝叶斯网络在冗余液压系统可靠性分析中的应用1 application ....pdf

模糊多态贝叶斯网络在冗余液压系统可靠性分析中的应用1 方玉茹，阚树林，杨 猛，谢 超 (上海大学 机电工程与自动化学院，上海 200072) 摘要：为解决传统方法在单元和系统状态多样化、精确故障率难以获得的复杂冗余系统可 靠性分析中的局限性，提出了一种改进的基于模糊多态贝叶斯网络的可靠性分析方法。该 方法基于二态故障树来构建多态贝叶斯网络结构，利用模糊数来描述根节点故障率，结合 工程经验构造出体现冗余系统及单元多态性和多态节点故障间不确定逻辑关系的条件概率 表。然后通过理论推算得到系统故障概率与可靠度、后验概率计算及根节点重要度的分析 过程，并将其应用到船舶推进器液压系统可靠性分析实例中，结果表明该方法能较好地满 足冗余系统可靠性评估、已知当前状态时的系统故障预测和实施关键单元可靠性增长的实 际需要，对类似系统可靠性研究具有参考价值。 关键词：模糊；多态；贝叶斯网络；冗余；液压系统；推进器；可靠性分析 中图分类号：TH137 文献标识码：A Application of fuzzy multi-state Bayesian networks in redundant hydraulic system’s reliability analysis FANG Yu-ru ，KAN Shu-lin ，YANG Meng ，XIE Chao (School of Mechatronic Engineering and Automation, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200072, China) Abstract ：In order to solve the limitations that traditional methods showed in the reliability analysis of complex redundant systems with multiple states and accurate failure rate difficult to obtain, an improved reliability analysis method based on fuzzy multi-state Bayesian networks is proposed. With the Bayesian structure built through two-state fault tree, fuzzy number methods are used to describe the failure rate of root nodes, and the conditional probability tables reflecting the polymorphism and uncertain logical relationship between nodes are constructed according to engineering experience. Then the analysis process is elaborated to calculate the reliability, the posterior probability and the importance degree, which is applied in the reliability analysis of hydraulic system in ship propellers. The results show that the proposed method can meet the actual needs of reliability assessment, failure prediction knowing current