中国东北洮儿河流域过去50年气候_省略_化与人类活动对径流的影响_英文_张凯.pdfVIP

J. Geogr. Sci. 2017, 27(4): 481-496 DOI: 10.1007/s11442-017-1388-2 © 2017 Science Press Springer-Verlag Influence of climate variability and human activities on stream flow variation in the past 50 years in Taoer River, Northeast China 1, 2 * 1 1 3 4 ZHANG Kai , LI Lijuan , BAI Peng , LI Jiuyi , LIU Yumei 1. Key Laboratory of Water Cycle Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China; 2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; 3. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China; 4. Suzhou University of Science and Technology, Suzhou 215009, Jiangsu, China Abstract: Taoer River Basin, which is located in the west of Northeast China, is an agro- pastoral ecotone. In recent years, the hydrological cycle and water resources have changed significantly with the deterioration of the environment. Many water problems such as river blanking, wetland shrinking and salinization have occurred in this region. All of these phenom- ena were directly caused by changes in stream flow under climate variability and human acti- vities. In light of the situation, the impact of climate variability and human activities on stream flow should be identified immediately to identify the primary driving factors of basin hydrolog- ical processes. To achieve this, statistical tests were applied to identify trends in variation and catastrophe points in mean annual stream flow from 1961 to 2011. A runoff sensitive coeffici- ents method and a SIMHYD model were applied to assess the impacts of stream flow variat- ion. The following conclusions were found: 1) The years 1985 and 2000 were confirmed to be catastrophe points in the stream flow series. Thus, the