股票外汇技术分析英文版(41).pptVIP

一些好用的預測指標 (技術分析有用嗎?) The mathematical expectation of the speculator is zero—Louis Bachelier(1900) Efficient Market Hypothesis EMH The Efficient Market Hypothesis evolved in the 1960s from the Ph.D. dissertation of Eugene Fama. Fama persuasively made the argument that in an active market that includes many well-informed and intelligent investors, securities will be appropriately priced and reflect all available information. If a market is efficient, no information or analysis can be expected to result in outperformance of an appropriate benchmark. EMH Can We Beat Mr. Market? Can Individual Investors Beat the Market? Is stock market a fair game ? Louis Bachelier The mathematical expectation of the speculator is zero (1900) He described this condition as a fair game”. Random Walk Hypothesis The random walk hypothesis is a financial theory stating that stock market prices evolve according to a random walk and thus the prices of the stock market cannot be predicted. Non-Random Walk Hypothesis There are other economists, professors, and investors who believe that the market is predictable to some degree. These people believe that prices may move in trends and that the study of past prices can be used to forecast future price direction. There have been some economic studies that support this view, and a book has been written by two professors of economics that tries to prove the random walk hypothesis wrong. 台灣加權股價指數的歧異現象 P , Q , MA 勝率及賠率與時間的關係圖 我們以d =16為例, 相對勝率 ,表示長期而言，這樣的策略占有優勢,可以獲取報酬。 Coin Tossing Trend-Following Trading Strategy 實例 Δ=1 H65 65→64 → sell 64 x 1 L61.5 61.5→62.5 → buy 62.5 x 2 實例 Δ=1 H65 65→64 → sell 64 x 1 L62 62→63 → buy 63 x 2 技術分析有用乎?無用乎? → → 活用技術分析 → → 加減用 認識K線圖 技術指標(Indicators) Trend(趨勢指標) _Moving Average(移動平均) _Bollinger Bands(包寧傑帶狀 ) Oscillators(震盪指標) _MACD _RSI _KD _CCI _Williams 移動平均線 (Moving Average) 移動平均線是利用統計學上移動平均的原理，將每天的收盤價以需要的天數累加後除以其天數，得出一平均值。 移動平均線代表該期間內投資人的平均持股成本，所以從MA線和股價之間的關係，可以看出股價即將產生的變