CMA P1 Gleim Unit 89知识点整理.docx

PART THREE: Planning, Budgeting, and Forecasting 30%Unit 8. Analysis and Forecasting TechniquesForecasting methods:1) Qualitative methods: rely on managers experience and intuition2) Quantitative methods: use mathematical models and graphs* Correlation Analysis: analysis the strength of linear relationship b/w two variables= the foundation of any quantitative methods of forecasting= expressed in terms of thecoefficient of correlation(r)= r ∈[ -1,1 ] r = -1 : perfect inverse relationship r = 1 : perfect direct relationship -1 r 1 : strong/weak direct relationship r = 0 : no linear relationship = the coefficient of determination (r2) is a measure of how good the fit is r2of the variation of Y can be explained by the changes of X* Regression Analysis (least-square analysis): the processing of deriving the linear equation that describes the relationship b/w two variables with r ≠ 0= almost a necessity for computing fixed and variable portion of mix costs for flexible budgeting= regression does not determine causality! 1) Simple regression: used when only one independent variable x = equation: y = a + bx where y = dependent variable x = independent variable a = y intercept (fixed portion) b = slope of the regression line (variable portion)2) Multiple regression: used when more than one independent variables, allows to identify many factors and to weight each based on influence over final outcome= equation: y = a + b1x1 + b2x2 + b3x3 + etc.Assumptions of linear regression model:1) the linear relationship is only valid across the relevant range =do not projecting relationship beyond it = a negative a in simple regression usually indicate its outside the range2) past relationships can be validly projected into future 3)homoscedasticity(constant variance): the distribution of y around the regression line is constant for different value of x * Learni