Dealing with Climate Uncertainty and Risk in Social Asse.ppt

Dealing with Climate Uncertainty and Risk in Social Assessments如何处理社会评估中的气候不确定性和风险 Dr. Sarah Opitz-Stapleton (ISET) Roger B. Street (UKCIP) ACCC June Integration Workshop Beijing 6-9 June 2011 Definitions of vulnerability and risk 脆弱性和风险的定义 Questions to answer when conducting RAs: 进行风险评估时需要回答的问题 Extreme event analysis and hazard thresholds 极端事件分析和灾害临界点 Scenario creation 情景创建 How VA and RA support identification of adaptation options. 脆弱性和风险评估如何支持选定适应对策 Overview 概论 Risk = ?(likelihood of hazard or impacts, vulnerability) 风险=?(灾害/影响的可能性,脆弱性) Vulnerability = ?(sensitivity, exposure, adaptive capacity) 脆弱性=?(敏感性,暴露程度,适应能力) Definitions 定义 Phase 1: Assessments of Current climate vulnerability and risk: 第一阶段: 当前气候脆弱性和风险的评估 Who/what is vulnerable to which current climate hazards and what are the underlying factors that contribute to their state of vulnerability? 谁/什么对当前什么气候灾害有脆弱性? 有哪些因素促成这些脆弱性? What are the historical levels of risk associated with each current climate hazard or its impacts? 与现存气候灾害/影响相关的风险的历史等级是什么? Phase 2: Developing scenarios of Future vulnerability and risk: 第二阶段: 建立未来脆弱性和风险的情景 How might vulnerability change in the future if exposure, sensitivity or adaptive capacity change? 如果暴露程度,敏感度, 适应能力在未来发生改变,脆弱性会发生怎样的变化? Given changes in the likelihood of climate hazards (derived from climate science) or their impacts + scenarios of vulnerability, how might risk change? 气候灾害的可能性如果发生变化,或其影响或脆弱性情景发生变化, 风险将如何改变? If various options are implemented, how will these options change risk levels? 如果采取不同的适应对策,这些对策将如何改变风险等级? Vulnerability and Risk Assessments 脆弱性和风险评估 Identify critical thresholds or sensitivities from assessments of current vulnerability and risk, stakeholder consultations 从现在的脆弱性和风险评估及利益相关者讨论中选定重要临界点或敏感领域 Identify current decision priorities and perceptions of allowable risk from stakeholder consultations 选定当前的优先决策,(利益相关者讨论中)确定可接受风险的观念 Identify timelines and geographic scales of concern for various types of decisions. 为不同的决