中国商业银行的趋势与战略 - 财经杂志.pptVIP

中国商业银行的趋势与战略 王君 2008年12月13日 财经杂志年会金融峰会（上） SCBs financial performance before 1997 SCBs financial performance before 1997 Multiple stakeholders…but none was held accountable 特征与战略同质化 股权结构与公司治理 市场份额（大城市、大客户、总资产） 范围扩张（混业经营） 海外并购与网点设立 产品开发（期限短期化、利率下浮、理财产品） 政治化（对地方政府的依赖：银政协议） 非价格竞争领域（机场贵宾室） 4. 微小企业贷款需求远远没有得到满足 这些都导致银行的顺周期特征 政策导向 信贷分析与管理能力 企业整体风险分析与监控 行业与产业链 对担保的过度依赖 并且使资金无法流向那些真正需要的行业、企业和个人 全国县以下商业银行贷存比仅有56％ 获得贷款的企业不到法人单位数目的40％ 如果加上个体工商户这个比例低于10％ 新的竞争格局会是什么样？ 县域金融市场 微小贷款 批发或零售 产品 * Non-Performing Loans ROE Leverage Ratio Loan Loss Reserve Ratio n.a. n.a. Non-Performing Loans ROE Leverage Ratio Loan Loss Reserve Ratio n.a. n.a. Non-performing loans Loan Loss Reserve Ratio Tier 1 Ratio ROE …but their financial performance remained poor up to 2002 SCB Management Local governments CBRC SAO PBC NDRC State Council SAFE STA Branches Branches MOF FWC Assets Loans Deposits Equity SCBs’ size and equity expanded NPLs Loan Loss Reserve Ratio Tier 1 Ratio Leverage Ratio Assets quality improved… Non-Interest Income/Total Revenue ROA ROE Cost To Income Ratio Earnings capacity increased Asset Equity Benchmarking with peers (1), 2007 NPLs Loan Loss Reserve Ratio Benchmarking with peers (2), 2007 Tier 1 Ratio Leverage Ratio Benchmarking with peers (3), 2007 n.a. Loans To Deposits Ratio Cost To Income Ratio Benchmarking with peers (4), 2007 Non-interest Income/total Revenue Net Interest Margin Benchmarking with peers (5), 2007 ROA ROE Benchmarking with peers (6), 2007 Credit rating by Moody’s, 2008 E P-1 A1 ABC D- D- D-1 B B Financial Strength A1 P-1 A1 BOC P-1 A1 ICBC P-1 A1 CCB Aa1 P-1 Aa1 Barclays Bank Aa3 P-1 Citigroup Credit Agricole Aa2 P-1 Aa1 Deutsche Bank Aa2 A-1 HSBC Aa2 P-1 RBS Group LT Debt Senior Short term Bank Deposits LT Credit rating by Standard and Poor, 2008 ABC A-2 A-2 A-2 A-1+ A-1+ A-1+ A-1+ A-1 Foreign Currency ST A- A-2 A- BOC A- ICBC A- A-2 A CCB AA A-1+ AA Barclays Bank AA- A-1+ AA- Citigroup Credit Agricole AA- A-1+ AA- Deutsche Bank AA- A-1+ AA- HSBC A+ A-1 A