黑龙江省暴雪天气分析和预报技术.pdfVIP

16卷6期 自 然 灾 害 学 报 Vo1．16，No．6 2007年12月 JOURNAL OF NATURAL DISASTERS Dec．2007 文章编号：1004—4574(2007)06—0025—06 黑龙江省暴雪天气分析和预报技术 高玉中 ，周海龙 ，苍蕴琦 ，万里鹏 (1．黑龙江省气象台，黑龙江哈尔滨150030；2．大兴安岭地区气象局，黑龙江加格达奇165000) 摘要：分析表明，造成黑龙江省暴雪的低压天气系统不仅来自西北、偏西和偏南方向，而且还有在东北 和日本海新生成的，其中又以西南和南来的居多；高空影响系统主要是低槽，其次是低涡，但降暴雪时 多数是低涡；造成暴雪的锋面系统以暖锋和锢囚锋为最多。另外，从造成降水的成因和水平锋生这两 个角度出发，给出了7个暴雪落区的温压场模型。850 hPa温度、850 hPa温度平流和拔海高度决定了 降水(雨、雪)的性质。 关键词：暴雪；锋生；温压场模型；降水性质预报 中图分类号：P468．0 28 文献标识码：A Weather analysis and prediction technology of snowstorm in Heilongjiang Province GAO Yu—zhong ，ZHOU Hai—long ，CANG Yun．qi ，WAN Li—peng (1．Meteorological Ob8eⅣatory of Heilongjiang Province，Harbin 150030，China；2．Mete0r0logic8l Bureau of Daxinganling RegiOn，Jiagedaqi 165000，China) Abstract：weather analysis and prediction technology of snowstorm in Heilongjiang Province were studied with ob— served data for 24 snowstorm cases in winter from 1989 to 2004．The results show that the low vortex systems are not only come from northwest，and westerly and southerly but also generated in Northeast of China and Japan Sea， which caused the snowstorms in Heilongjiang Province．The southwest and southern low vortex is mostly in all se— lected cases．The upper systems are mainly trough and the secondly the low vortex，warm fronts and occlusion front are most in surface．Seven patterns of temperature and pressure were given according to the cause of precipitation and horizontal frontogenesis，at the same time prediction index of snow were given．snow or rain depends on 850 hPa temperature，850 hPa temperature advection and altitude Keywords：snowstorm ；frontogenesis；pattern of tempe