经验震害矩阵的完善方法研究.pdfVIP

第27卷第6期 地 震 工 程 与 工 程 振 动 Vo1．27 No．6 2007年12月 JOURNAL OF EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING AND ENGINEERING VIBRATION Dec．20町 文章编号：1000。1301(2007)06。0046。05 经验震害矩阵的完善方法研究 胡少卿 ，孙柏涛 ，王东明 ，陈洪富 (1．中国地震局工程力学研究所，黑龙江哈尔滨 150080；2．中国地震应急搜救中心，北京 100049) 摘要：近年来我国发生的几次大地震有一些是发生在低烈度区，对地震区已有的建筑物应当怎样来评 价它的抗震能力，本文对此进行了探索性的研究。通过将破坏概率离散化得出一次地震中各烈度下 震害指数的均值和方差，对比其与标准震害矩阵相应烈度下的值，得到其他烈度下震害指数的均值和 方差。我们假设各烈度下震害指数分布都服从Beta分布，由均值和方差反算出Beta分布的未知参 数，从而得出其他烈度下各破坏等级的概率值。用本文方法得到的震害矩阵，可为该地区的震害预测 和经济损失评估提供科学依据。计算结果表明，本文的方法是可行的。 关键词：震害矩阵；Beta分布；破坏概率；均值；方差 中图分类号：P315．957 文献标志码：A Approach to making empirical earthquake damage matrix HU Shaoqing ，SUN Baitao ，WANG Dongming 一．CHEN Hongfu (1．Institute of Engineering Mechanics，China Earthquake Administration，Harbin 150080，China； 2．National Earthquake Response Support Service(NERSS)，Beijing 100049，China) Abstract：In recent years，several large earthquakes occurred in our country．And some were in the low intensity areas．It is important to evaluate the earthquake resistance of existing buildings in earthquake—affected areas．The expectation and variance of damage probability in known intensities are calculated by making the probability dis— perse．The expectation and variance of damage probability in other intensities are given by comparing to that of standard earthquake damage matrix．Supposing that the damage probabilities for each intensity obeys the Beta dis— tribution and the parameter of Beta—distribution function is calculated from the expectation and variance in other in— tensities．Then the probability of each damage grade for other intensities is gained．This damage matrix provides a reference for the earthquake damage prediction and the earthquak