决策理论与方法目录（Decision theory and method catalog）.doc

决策理论与方法目录（Decision theory and method catalog） Decision theory and method (chapter catalog) Decision and found the and Technology The introduction Chapter 1 basic concepts of decision making An introduction to § 1-1 I. definition of decision and decision analysis 1. The meaning of Decision: (Oxford dictionary) 2. The Soviet encyclopedia The modern science and technology lexicon, 4. Decision Theory of American encyclopedia : 5.  the modern economics dictionary 6.  harvard management series: 7. Political implications of decision-making Ii. A brief history of development Status (relation to other disciplines) Its one of the operations research 2. Extension of cybernetics 3. An important part of management science 4. An important part of system engineering 5. The intersection between social science and natural science, typical soft science § 1-2 basic characteristics and the elements of decision problems The characteristics, Second, the elements of Classification of § 1-3 decision problem 1. Division of factors that are easy to distinguish Two, according to the wide and narrow range 3. Personal decisions and business decisions Policy makers and decision analysis § 1-4 people I. the complexity of the problem: Ii. Microeconomics and decision theory on economic assumptions: The division of labor between decision makers and decision makers § 1-5 analysis methods and steps 1. Decision tree and draw Ii. Analysis procedures Problem sets Further reading of the literature Chapter 2 the subjective probability and the transcendental distribution Subjective Probability and Prior Distribution Basic concept of § 2-1 1. Probability Frequency Laplace in the theoretical analysis of probability (1812) Subjective probability (subjective probability) 1. Why introduce subjective probability 2. Definition of subjective probability 3. Mathematical definition of probability 4. Comparison of subjective and objective probabilities § 2-2 Prior distribution, the Prior distribution) and its sett