capital in the 21 century - thomas piketty（资本在21世纪- thomas piketty）.pdf

Capital in the 21st century Thomas Piketty Paris School of Economics March 2014 • This presentation is based upon Capital in the 21st century (Harvard University Press, March 2014) • This book studies the global dynamics of income and wealth distribution since 18c in 20+ countries; I use historical data collected over the past 15 years together with Atkinson, Saez, Postel-Vinay, Rosenthal, Alvaredo, Zucman, and 30+ others. • The book includes four parts: Part 1. Income and capital Part 2. The dynamics of the capital/income ratio Part 3. The structure of inequalities Part 4. Regulating capital in the 21st century • In this presentation I will present some results from Parts 2 3, focusing upon the long-run evolution of capital/income ratios and wealth concentration (all graphs and series are available on line: see http://piketty.pse.ens.fr/capital21c ) This presentation: three points • 1. The return of a patrimonial (or wealth-based) society in the Old World (Europe, Japan). Wealth-income ratios seem to be returning to very high levels in low growth countries. Intuition: in a slow-growth society, wealth accumulated in the past can naturally become very important. In the very long run, this can be relevant for the entire world. • 2. The future of wealth concentration: with high r - g during 21c (r = net-of-tax rate of return, g = growth rate), then wealth inequality might reach or surpass 19c oligarchic levels; conversely, suitable institutions can allow to democratize wealth. • 3. Inequality in America : is the New World developing a new inequality model that is based upon extreme labor income inequality more than upon wealth inequality? Is it more merit- based, or can it become the worst of all worlds? 1. The return of a wealth-based society • Wealth = capital K = everything we own and