修正生命表的信度理论方法（Reliability theory method for correcting life table）.docVIP

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修正生命表的信度理论方法（Reliability theory method for correcting life table）.doc

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修正生命表的信度理论方法（Reliability theory method for correcting life table）

修正生命表的信度理论方法（Reliability theory method for correcting life table） It will also lead to a jump in mortality. For example, recent discoveries made by Chinese scientists in the treatment of leukemia are likely to save the lives of a large number of people. For long-term protection type insurance, the natural trend of mortality can compensate for the loss caused by pricing. But for the annuity products, it is not the same, the period of insurance annuity products may be up to life, but the mortality rate is low, the life is long, the higher the cost of insurance, if the insurance company in the pricing did not fully take into account the mortality trend is likely to produce huge losses. In a stable financial environment, the insurance company can rely on excess investment income to make up for the deficiency, but the change of financial market in recent years, especially the sharp decline in interest rates, the life insurance companies are increasingly unable to rely on investment income to reduce the risk of death. The British equity life-insurance company went bankrupt, is a good example, they joined the guaranteed annuity conversion rate in terms of dividend products, due to not fully aware of the risk of death, the actual cost of warranty greatly exceeded expectations, coupled with other business failures, the equitable life go bankrupt. This situation also exists in our country, the life table of Chinese life insurance company to use the experience of the current (CL1990-1993) is used at the Peoples Insurance Company of China 1990-1993 year warranty data, has more than 10 years interval. According to the fifth census, the average life expectancy of Chinas population increased by 2.85 compared with 1990. In order to reflect this decrease in mortality, insurance companies do not fully adhere to the current life table when they are pricing. Usually it is assumed that the mortality rate of life insurance products CL1990-1993 multiplied by 70% - 80% in order to make up